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The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Program on Extended-Range Prediction

T.N. PalmerECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

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C. BrankovicECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

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F. MolteniECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

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S. TibaldiECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

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L. FerrantiECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

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A. HollingsworthECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

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U. CubaschECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

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E. KlinkerECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK

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Results from a 3 1/2-yr experimental program of extended-range integrations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model are summarized. The topics discussed include

Our results are broadly consistent with those from other major centers evaluating the feasibility of dynamical extended-range prediction. We believe that operational extended-range forecasting using the ECMWF model may be viable to day 20—and possibly beyond—following further research on techniques for Monte Carlo forecasting, and when model systematic error in the tropics has been reduced significantly.

Results from a 3 1/2-yr experimental program of extended-range integrations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model are summarized. The topics discussed include

Our results are broadly consistent with those from other major centers evaluating the feasibility of dynamical extended-range prediction. We believe that operational extended-range forecasting using the ECMWF model may be viable to day 20—and possibly beyond—following further research on techniques for Monte Carlo forecasting, and when model systematic error in the tropics has been reduced significantly.

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