Real-Time Operational Forecasting on Shipboard of the Iceland–Faeroe Frontal Variability

A. R. Robinson
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H. G. Arango
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A. J. Miller
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A. Warn-Varnas
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P.-M. Poulain
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W. G. Leslie
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Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of Iceland–Faeroe frontal variability were executed for the first time with a primitive equation model. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993 were used for initialization, updating, and validation of the forecasts. Vigorous and rapid synoptic events occurred over several-day timescales including a southeastward reorientation of the Iceland–Faeroe Front and the development of a strong, cold deep-sock meander. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the skill of these forecasts shows they captured the essential features of both events. The anomaly pattern correlation coefficient and the rms error between forecast and observed fields are particularly impressive (and substantially superior to persistence) for the forecast of the cold meander.

*Division of Applied Sciences, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

+Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California.

#SACLANT Undersea Research Centre, La Spezia, Italy.

&Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, Minnesota.

Corresponding author address: Prof. Allan R. Robinson, Division of Applied Sciences, Pierce Hall, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.

Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of Iceland–Faeroe frontal variability were executed for the first time with a primitive equation model. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993 were used for initialization, updating, and validation of the forecasts. Vigorous and rapid synoptic events occurred over several-day timescales including a southeastward reorientation of the Iceland–Faeroe Front and the development of a strong, cold deep-sock meander. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the skill of these forecasts shows they captured the essential features of both events. The anomaly pattern correlation coefficient and the rms error between forecast and observed fields are particularly impressive (and substantially superior to persistence) for the forecast of the cold meander.

*Division of Applied Sciences, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

+Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California.

#SACLANT Undersea Research Centre, La Spezia, Italy.

&Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, Minnesota.

Corresponding author address: Prof. Allan R. Robinson, Division of Applied Sciences, Pierce Hall, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138.
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