All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 195 40 10
PDF Downloads 74 29 8

A Forecast Product that Maximizes Utility for State-of-the-Art Seasonal Climate Prediction

Anthony G. BarnstonClimate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

Search for other papers by Anthony G. Barnston in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Yuxiang HeClimate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

Search for other papers by Yuxiang He in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
David A. UngerClimate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

Search for other papers by David A. Unger in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Full access

The prediction of seasonal climate anomalies at useful lead times often involves an unfavorable signal-to-noise ratio. The forecasts, while consequently tending to have modest skill, nonetheless have significant utility when packaged in ways to which users can relate and respond appropriately. This paper presents a reasonable but unprecedented manner in which to issue seasonal climate forecasts and illustrates how implied “tilts of the odds” of the forecasted climate may be used beneficially by technical as well as nontechnical clients.

Corresponding author address: Anthony G. Barnston, Climate Prediction Center, W/NP5, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, World Weather Building, Room 604, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304. E-mail: wd51ab@sgi45.wwb.noaa.gov

The prediction of seasonal climate anomalies at useful lead times often involves an unfavorable signal-to-noise ratio. The forecasts, while consequently tending to have modest skill, nonetheless have significant utility when packaged in ways to which users can relate and respond appropriately. This paper presents a reasonable but unprecedented manner in which to issue seasonal climate forecasts and illustrates how implied “tilts of the odds” of the forecasted climate may be used beneficially by technical as well as nontechnical clients.

Corresponding author address: Anthony G. Barnston, Climate Prediction Center, W/NP5, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, World Weather Building, Room 604, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304. E-mail: wd51ab@sgi45.wwb.noaa.gov
Save