Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A Forecast Product that Maximizes Utility for State-of-the-Art Seasonal Climate Prediction

Anthony G. Barnston Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

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Yuxiang He Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

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David A. Unger Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

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Online Publication:
01 Jun 2000
Print Publication:
01 Jun 2000
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1271:AFPTMU>2.3.CO;2
Page(s):
1271–1280
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The prediction of seasonal climate anomalies at useful lead times often involves an unfavorable signal-to-noise ratio. The forecasts, while consequently tending to have modest skill, nonetheless have significant utility when packaged in ways to which users can relate and respond appropriately. This paper presents a reasonable but unprecedented manner in which to issue seasonal climate forecasts and illustrates how implied “tilts of the odds” of the forecasted climate may be used beneficially by technical as well as nontechnical clients.

Corresponding author address: Anthony G. Barnston, Climate Prediction Center, W/NP5, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, World Weather Building, Room 604, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304. E-mail: wd51ab@sgi45.wwb.noaa.gov

The prediction of seasonal climate anomalies at useful lead times often involves an unfavorable signal-to-noise ratio. The forecasts, while consequently tending to have modest skill, nonetheless have significant utility when packaged in ways to which users can relate and respond appropriately. This paper presents a reasonable but unprecedented manner in which to issue seasonal climate forecasts and illustrates how implied “tilts of the odds” of the forecasted climate may be used beneficially by technical as well as nontechnical clients.

Corresponding author address: Anthony G. Barnston, Climate Prediction Center, W/NP5, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, World Weather Building, Room 604, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304. E-mail: wd51ab@sgi45.wwb.noaa.gov
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