DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER)

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A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy

Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark

Land Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom

Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, Paris, France

Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France

Instituto Nacionale de Meteorologi'a, Madrid, Spain

Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany

European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, Toulouse, France

Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione Ambiente deU'Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Columbia University, New York, New York

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. T. N. Palmer, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, RG2 9AX, Reading, United Kingdom, E-mail: t.palmer@ecmwf.int

A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy

Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark

Land Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom

Laboratoire d'Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, Paris, France

Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France

Instituto Nacionale de Meteorologi'a, Madrid, Spain

Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany

European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, Toulouse, France

Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione Ambiente deU'Emilia Romagna, Bologna, Italy

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Columbia University, New York, New York

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. T. N. Palmer, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, RG2 9AX, Reading, United Kingdom, E-mail: t.palmer@ecmwf.int
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