The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming is “unequivocal” and that most of the observed increase since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, with discernible human influences on ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes, wind patterns, and other physical and biological indicators, impacting both socioeconomic and ecological systems. It is now clear that we are committed to some level of global climate change, and it is imperative that this be considered when planning future climate research and observational strategies. The Global Climate Observing System program (GCOS), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) therefore initiated a process to summarize the lessons learned through AR4 Working Groups I and II and to identify a set of high-priority modeling and observational needs. Two classes of recommendations emerged. First is the need to improve climate models, observational and climate monitoring systems, and our understanding of key processes. Second, the framework for climate research and observations must be extended to document impacts and to guide adaptation and mitigation efforts. Research and observational strategies specifically aimed at improving our ability to predict and understand impacts, adaptive capacity, and societal and ecosystem vulnerabilities will serve both purposes and are the subject of the specific recommendations made in this paper.
IGAC Core Project Office, NOAA-PMEL, Seattle, Washington
Global Climate Observing System, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
Climate Change Risk Research, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
ACE CRC and CSIRO Marine Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems, Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
NCAR,* Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, Colorado
NOAA/NCDC, Asheville, North Carolina
University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
Climate Program, Monash University, Victoria, Australia
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
Met Office Satellite Applications, Exeter, United Kingdom
CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems and Desert Knowledge, CRC, Canberra, Australia
University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, Colorado
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado
Institute for Environment and Sustainability, DG-Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada
*The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.