An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the Twenty-First Century

Melvyn Shapiro
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Jagadish Shukla
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David Burridge
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Jim Caughey
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The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado, and Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, Maryland

Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Center for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil

NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

World Climate Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Météo France, Toulouse, France

Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany

THORPEX, World Weather Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden, and International Council for Science, Paris, France

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Earth Simulator Center, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, and Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland, and University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, and University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

World Weather Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Health and Climate Foundation, Washington, D.C.

Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

NOAA/NC EP Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

CIMSS, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

Department of Meteorology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

*NC AR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: M. A. Shapiro, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, E-mail: mshapiro@ucar.edu

The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado, and Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and Institute of Global Environment and Society, Calverton, Maryland

Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Environment Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Center for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil

NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

World Climate Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Météo France, Toulouse, France

Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany

THORPEX, World Weather Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden, and International Council for Science, Paris, France

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Earth Simulator Center, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, and Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

Adaptation and Impacts Research Division, Environment Canada, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland, and University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, and University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

World Weather Research Programme, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Health and Climate Foundation, Washington, D.C.

Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

NOAA/NC EP Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

CIMSS, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

Department of Meteorology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

*NC AR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: M. A. Shapiro, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, E-mail: mshapiro@ucar.edu
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