Addressing the Complexity of the Earth System

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This paper discusses the development of a prediction system that integrates physical, biogeochemical, and societal processes in a unified Earth system framework. Such development requires collaborations among physical and social scientists, and should include i) the development of global Earth system analysis and prediction models that account for physical, chemical, and biological processes in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–land–ice system; ii) the development of a systematic framework that links the global climate and regionally constrained weather systems and the interactions and associated feedbacks with biogeochemistry, biology, and socioeconomic drivers (e.g., demography, global policy constraints, technological innovations) across scales and disciplines; and iii) the exploration and development of methodologies and models that account for societal drivers (e.g., governance, institutional dynamics) and their impacts and feedbacks on environmental and climate systems.

Center for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil

Climate Services Center, Hamburg, Germany, and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, and Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

WMO/WWRP Joint Scientific Committee, and Meteorological Research Division of Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, and IGBP/Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System Office, Boulder, Colorado

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Stockholm, Sweden

University of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Carlos A. Nobre, Av dos Astronautas, 1.758 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP Brazil, E-mail: carlos.nobre@inpe.br

This paper discusses the development of a prediction system that integrates physical, biogeochemical, and societal processes in a unified Earth system framework. Such development requires collaborations among physical and social scientists, and should include i) the development of global Earth system analysis and prediction models that account for physical, chemical, and biological processes in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–land–ice system; ii) the development of a systematic framework that links the global climate and regionally constrained weather systems and the interactions and associated feedbacks with biogeochemistry, biology, and socioeconomic drivers (e.g., demography, global policy constraints, technological innovations) across scales and disciplines; and iii) the exploration and development of methodologies and models that account for societal drivers (e.g., governance, institutional dynamics) and their impacts and feedbacks on environmental and climate systems.

Center for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil

Climate Services Center, Hamburg, Germany, and National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, and Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

WMO/WWRP Joint Scientific Committee, and Meteorological Research Division of Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland

Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, and IGBP/Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System Office, Boulder, Colorado

International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Stockholm, Sweden

University of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Carlos A. Nobre, Av dos Astronautas, 1.758 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP Brazil, E-mail: carlos.nobre@inpe.br
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