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The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

Philippe Bougeault
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Zoltan Toth
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David Burridge
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De Hui Chen
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Thomas M. Hamill
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Ken Mylne
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Tiziana Paccagnella
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Young-Youn Park
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Ensemble forecasting is increasingly accepted as a powerful tool to improve early warnings for high-impact weather. Recently, ensembles combining forecasts from different systems have attracted a considerable level of interest. The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Globa l Ensemble (TIGGE) project, a prominent contribution to THORPEX, has been initiated to enable advanced research and demonstration of the multimodel ensemble concept and to pave the way toward operational implementation of such a system at the international level. The objectives of TIGGE are 1) to facilitate closer cooperation between the academic and operational meteorological communities by expanding the availability of operational products for research, and 2) to facilitate exploring the concept and benefits of multimodel probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on high-impact weather prediction. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1–2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near–real time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at the China Meteorological Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The volume of data accumulated daily is 245 GB (1.6 million global fields). This is offered to the scientific community as a new resource for research and education. The TIGGE data policy is to make each forecast accessible via the Internet 48 h after it was initially issued by each originating center. Quicker access can also be granted for field experiments or projects of particular interest to the World Weather Research Programme and THORPEX. A few examples of initial results based on TIGGE data are discussed in this paper, and the case is made for additional research in several directions.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, Maryland

Navy Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Météo-France, Toulouse, France

Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione e Ambiante dell'Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy

Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea

National Laboratory of Scientific Computing, and University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

Meteorological Service of Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Philippe Bougeault, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, E-mail: philippe.bougeault@meteo.fr

Ensemble forecasting is increasingly accepted as a powerful tool to improve early warnings for high-impact weather. Recently, ensembles combining forecasts from different systems have attracted a considerable level of interest. The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Globa l Ensemble (TIGGE) project, a prominent contribution to THORPEX, has been initiated to enable advanced research and demonstration of the multimodel ensemble concept and to pave the way toward operational implementation of such a system at the international level. The objectives of TIGGE are 1) to facilitate closer cooperation between the academic and operational meteorological communities by expanding the availability of operational products for research, and 2) to facilitate exploring the concept and benefits of multimodel probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on high-impact weather prediction. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1–2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near–real time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at the China Meteorological Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The volume of data accumulated daily is 245 GB (1.6 million global fields). This is offered to the scientific community as a new resource for research and education. The TIGGE data policy is to make each forecast accessible via the Internet 48 h after it was initially issued by each originating center. Quicker access can also be granted for field experiments or projects of particular interest to the World Weather Research Programme and THORPEX. A few examples of initial results based on TIGGE data are discussed in this paper, and the case is made for additional research in several directions.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, Maryland

Navy Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Météo-France, Toulouse, France

Agenzia Regionale Prevenzione e Ambiante dell'Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy

Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea

National Laboratory of Scientific Computing, and University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

Meteorological Service of Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Philippe Bougeault, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, E-mail: philippe.bougeault@meteo.fr
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