Knowing what to do substantially improves the effectiveness of flood early warning

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  • 1 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany
  • | 2 Institute for Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, Germany
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Abstract

Flood warning systems are longstanding success stories in respect to protecting human life, but monetary losses continue to grow. Knowledge on the effectiveness of flood early warning in reducing monetary losses is scarce, especially at the individual level. To gain more knowledge in this area, we analyze a dataset which is unique in respect to detailed information on warning reception and monetary losses at the property level and in respect to amount of data available. The dataset contains 4468 loss cases from six flood events in Germany. These floods occurred between 2002 and 2013. The data from each event was collected by computer aided telephone interviews in four surveys following a repeated cross-sectional design. We quantitatively reveal that flood early warning is only effective in reducing monetary losses when people know what to do when they receive the warning. We also show, that particularly long-term preparedness is associated with people knowing what to do when they receive a warning. Thus, risk communication, training, and (financial) support for private preparedness are effective in mitigating flood losses in two ways: through precautionary measures and more effective emergency responses.

Corresponding author: Heidi Kreibich, Heidi.Kreibich@gfz-potsdam.de

Abstract

Flood warning systems are longstanding success stories in respect to protecting human life, but monetary losses continue to grow. Knowledge on the effectiveness of flood early warning in reducing monetary losses is scarce, especially at the individual level. To gain more knowledge in this area, we analyze a dataset which is unique in respect to detailed information on warning reception and monetary losses at the property level and in respect to amount of data available. The dataset contains 4468 loss cases from six flood events in Germany. These floods occurred between 2002 and 2013. The data from each event was collected by computer aided telephone interviews in four surveys following a repeated cross-sectional design. We quantitatively reveal that flood early warning is only effective in reducing monetary losses when people know what to do when they receive the warning. We also show, that particularly long-term preparedness is associated with people knowing what to do when they receive a warning. Thus, risk communication, training, and (financial) support for private preparedness are effective in mitigating flood losses in two ways: through precautionary measures and more effective emergency responses.

Corresponding author: Heidi Kreibich, Heidi.Kreibich@gfz-potsdam.de
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