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Improving Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction: recommendations for future forecast systems evolution from the European project APPLICATE

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  • 1 Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
  • | 2 Met Office, Exeter, UK
  • | 3 Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
  • | 4 Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
  • | 5 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
  • | 6 Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
  • | 7 CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • | 8 Météo-France, Toulouse, France
  • | 9 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
  • | 10 Now at: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
  • | 11 Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
  • | 12 Now at: Meteorology Unit, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
  • | 13 Department of Physics and Electrical Engineering, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
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Abstract

The Arctic environment is changing, increasing the vulnerability of local communities and ecosystems, and impacting its socio-economic landscape. In this context, weather and climate prediction systems can be powerful tools to support strategic planning and decision-making at different time horizons. This article presents several success stories from the H2020 project APPLICATE on how to advance Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction, synthesizing the key lessons learned throughout the project and providing recommendations for future model and forecast system development.

Corresponding author: Pablo Ortega, pablo.ortega@bsc.es

Abstract

The Arctic environment is changing, increasing the vulnerability of local communities and ecosystems, and impacting its socio-economic landscape. In this context, weather and climate prediction systems can be powerful tools to support strategic planning and decision-making at different time horizons. This article presents several success stories from the H2020 project APPLICATE on how to advance Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction, synthesizing the key lessons learned throughout the project and providing recommendations for future model and forecast system development.

Corresponding author: Pablo Ortega, pablo.ortega@bsc.es
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