The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP): Achievements, impacts and lessons learnt

Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany
University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

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Jeff Wilson Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany

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Eric Bazile CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

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David Bromwich Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

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Barbara Casati Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Québec, Canada;

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Jonathan Day European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom

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Estelle De Coning World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

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Clare Eayrs Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, South Korea

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Oystein Godoy Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

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Helge Goessling Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany

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Robert Grumbine National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, Maryland

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Victoria J. Heinrich University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia

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Jun Inoue National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan

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Siri Jodha S. Khalsa National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado

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Jorn Kristiansen Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

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Machiel Lamers Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands

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Daniela Liggett University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

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Steffen M. Olsen Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark

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Donald Perovich Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, New Hampshire

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Ian A. Renfrew School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

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Irina Sandu World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

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Matthew D. Shupe Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado and NOAA Physical Science Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

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Vasily Smolyanitsky Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St Petersburg, Russian Federation

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Gunilla Svensson Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

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Qizhen Sun National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, China

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Taneil Uttal NOAA/Physical Science Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado (retired)

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Kirstin Werner Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany
University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany

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Qinghua Yang School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China

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Open access

Abstract

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), an international research initiative organized by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Program from 2013–2022, aimed to markedly enhance environmental prediction capabilities in the polar regions and beyond, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing climate. YOPP achieved this through a concerted effort in observation, modeling, verification, user engagement, and educational activities. This article offers a comprehensive overview of YOPP’s key outcomes and impacts, using a dual approach that merges qualitative success stories with quantitative metrics. Scientifically, the focus is on the role of polar observations in improving prediction accuracy, enhanced understanding of processes to support model development, advancements in forecast verification, particularly in sea ice prediction, an improved understanding of the interconnections between polar and mid-latitude regions, and effective user engagement. This paper also discusses how these scientific discoveries have been converted into practical applications, emphasizing the route from science to services. Additionally, it summarizes the education, communication, outreach, and coordination efforts employed to maximize YOPP’s impact. Finally, the article provides a series of recommendations for future research, informed by the insights gained from YOPP’s experiences and recent radical developments in technology.

© 2025 American Meteorological Society. This is an Author Accepted Manuscript distributed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Thomas Jung, thomas.jung@awi.de

Abstract

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), an international research initiative organized by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Program from 2013–2022, aimed to markedly enhance environmental prediction capabilities in the polar regions and beyond, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing climate. YOPP achieved this through a concerted effort in observation, modeling, verification, user engagement, and educational activities. This article offers a comprehensive overview of YOPP’s key outcomes and impacts, using a dual approach that merges qualitative success stories with quantitative metrics. Scientifically, the focus is on the role of polar observations in improving prediction accuracy, enhanced understanding of processes to support model development, advancements in forecast verification, particularly in sea ice prediction, an improved understanding of the interconnections between polar and mid-latitude regions, and effective user engagement. This paper also discusses how these scientific discoveries have been converted into practical applications, emphasizing the route from science to services. Additionally, it summarizes the education, communication, outreach, and coordination efforts employed to maximize YOPP’s impact. Finally, the article provides a series of recommendations for future research, informed by the insights gained from YOPP’s experiences and recent radical developments in technology.

© 2025 American Meteorological Society. This is an Author Accepted Manuscript distributed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Thomas Jung, thomas.jung@awi.de
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