Where Have the EF5s Gone? A Closer Look at the “Drought” of the Most Violent Tornadoes in the United States

Anthony W. Lyza NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

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Harold E. Brooks NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

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Makenzie J. Krocak NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

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Abstract

As of January 2025, the United States has gone over 11 years without the occurrence of a tornado rated EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, constituting the longest “drought” in F5/EF5-rated tornadoes since the beginning of official records (1950). This article places the “drought” of 5-rated tornadoes in the context of a long-term tornado climatology. A key breakpoint exists between how the legacy Fujita (F) scale and the EF scale handle the complete destruction and sweeping away of single-family homes, with standard “well-constructed” homes being swept away constituting F5 damage on the F scale but only EF4 damage on the EF scale. To illustrate this point, adjusting the lower-bound of EF5 on the EF scale from 201 mph to 190 mph or increasing all 190–200-mph EF4s to >200 mph EF5s to account for this breakpoint in the handling of single-family homes would lead to consistent 5-level rating assignments from 1880 through present day. Furthermore, contextual evidence that was used to aid in identifying 5-level damage in the F-scale and early EF-scale eras could assist in identifying top-tier intensity tornadoes. These findings ultimately lead to questions regarding what the highest possible rating of a tornado should represent from both physical and societal perspectives.

© 2025 American Meteorological Society. This is an Author Accepted Manuscript distributed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author address: Dr. Anthony W. Lyza, anthony.lyza@noaa.gov

Abstract

As of January 2025, the United States has gone over 11 years without the occurrence of a tornado rated EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, constituting the longest “drought” in F5/EF5-rated tornadoes since the beginning of official records (1950). This article places the “drought” of 5-rated tornadoes in the context of a long-term tornado climatology. A key breakpoint exists between how the legacy Fujita (F) scale and the EF scale handle the complete destruction and sweeping away of single-family homes, with standard “well-constructed” homes being swept away constituting F5 damage on the F scale but only EF4 damage on the EF scale. To illustrate this point, adjusting the lower-bound of EF5 on the EF scale from 201 mph to 190 mph or increasing all 190–200-mph EF4s to >200 mph EF5s to account for this breakpoint in the handling of single-family homes would lead to consistent 5-level rating assignments from 1880 through present day. Furthermore, contextual evidence that was used to aid in identifying 5-level damage in the F-scale and early EF-scale eras could assist in identifying top-tier intensity tornadoes. These findings ultimately lead to questions regarding what the highest possible rating of a tornado should represent from both physical and societal perspectives.

© 2025 American Meteorological Society. This is an Author Accepted Manuscript distributed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author address: Dr. Anthony W. Lyza, anthony.lyza@noaa.gov
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