This study is partially supported by the UH-EWC collaborative research program. PSC benefitted from Rick Katz’s reading of the draft. We thank the anonymous reviewers and Gene Rasmusson for comments that were very helpful in improving the original version of this paper.
Chelliah, M., and P. Arkin, 1992: Large-scale interannual variability of monthly outgoing longwave radiation anomalies over the global tropics. J. Climate,5, 371–389.
Chou, M.-D., 1994: Coolness in the tropical Pacific during an El Niño episode.J. Climate,7, 1684–1692.
Ding, Y., 1994: Monsoon over China. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 419 pp.
Gadgil, S., A. Guruprasad, and J. Srinivasan, 1992: Systematic bias in the NOAA outgoing longwave radiation dataset? J. Climate,5, 867–875.
Gladwell, J. S., and M. Bonell, 1990: An international programme for environmentally sound hydrologic and water management strategies in the humid tropics. Symp. Tropical Hydrology, San Juan, Puerto Rico, UNESCO, 10 pp.
Graham, N. E., 1994: Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Climate Dyn.,10, 135–162.
Gruber, A., and A. F. Krueger, 1984: The status of the NOAA outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,65, 958–962.
Katz, R. W., 1985: Probabilistic models. Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences, A. H. Murphy and R. W. Katz, Eds., Westview, 261–288.
Kayano, M. T., V. E. Kousky, and J. E. Janowiak, 1995: Outgoing longwave radiation biases and their impacts on empirical orthogonal function modes of interannual variability in the Tropics. J. Geophys. Res.,100 (D2), 3173–3180.
Kousky, V. E., and P.-S. Chu, 1978: Fluctuations in annual rainfall for northeast Brazil. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,56, 457–465.
Krishnamurti, T. N., and N. Surgi, 1987: Observational aspects of summer monsoon. Monsoon Meteorology, C.-P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University Press, 3–25.
Lau, K.-M., and C.-P. Chang, 1987: Planetary scale aspects of the winter monsoon and atmospheric teleconnections. Monsoon Meteorology, C.-P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University Press, 161–202.
——, and P. J. Sheu, 1991: Teleconnections in global rainfall anomalies: Seasonal to inter-decadal time scales. Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies, M. H. Glantz, R. W. Katz, and N. Nicholls, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 227–256.
Motell, C. E., and B. C. Weare, 1987: Estimating tropical Pacific rainfall using digital satellite data. J. Climate Appl. Meteor.,26, 1436–1446.
Nitta, T., and S. Yamada, 1989: Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,67, 375–382.
——, and M. Kachi, 1994: Interdecadal variations of precipitation over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,72, 823–831.
Palmer, T. N., and D. A. Mansfield, 1984: Response of two atmospheric general circulation models to sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical east and west Pacific. Nature,310, 483–485.
Rasmusson, E. M., 1991: Observational aspects of ENSO cycle teleconnections. Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies, M. H. Glantz, R. W. Katz, and N. Nicholls, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 309–343.
Shukla, J., and K. C. Mo, 1983: Seasonal and geographical variation of blocking. Mon. Wea. Rev.,111, 388–402.
Solow, A., and N. Nicholls, 1990: The relationship between the Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region. J. Climate,3, 1097–1101.
Wang, B., 1995: Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades. J. Climate,8, 267–285.
Wilks, D. S., 1997: Resampling hypothesis tests for autocorrelated fields. J. Climate,10, 65–82.
Woodward, W. A., and H. L. Gray, 1993: Global warming and the problem of testing for trend in time series data. J. Climate,6, 953–962.
Yoo, J.-M., and J. A. Carton, 1988: Outgoing longwave radiation derived rainfall in the tropical Atlantic, with emphasis on 1983–84. J. Climate,1, 1047–1054.