Funding was provided by NOAA under the Lamont/Scripps Consortium for Climate Research (NA47GP0188), the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Centre (NA36GP0372), and the Paleoclimate Program (NA66GP0274), by the National Space Development Agency of Japan, by the National Science Foundation (OCE97-11265), and by the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. AJM thanks Mike Alexander, Tim Barnett, Tim Baumgartner, Dave Battisti, Clara Deser, Mojib Latif, Zhengyu Liu, Sho Nakamoto, Jeff Polovina, Niklas Schneider, Frank Schwing, Yves Tourre, Kevin Trenberth, and Weimin Xu for important discussions of decadal variability.
Alexander, M. A., 1992: Midlatitude atmosphere–ocean interaction during El Niño. 1. The North Pacific Ocean. J. Climate,5, 944–958.
——, and C. Deser, 1995: A mechanism for the recurrence of wintertime midlatitude SST anomalies. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,25, 122–137.
Anderson, D. L. T., and A. E. Gill, 1975: Spin-up of a stratified ocean, with application to upwelling. Deep-Sea Res.,22, 583–596.
Barsugli, J. J., and D. S. Battisti, 1998: The basic effects of atmosphere–ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability. J. Atmos. Sci.,55, 477–493.
Bretherton, C. S., C. Smith, and J. M. Wallace, 1992: An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. J. Climate,5, 541–560.
Brodeur, R. D., B. W. Frost, S. R. Hare, R. C. Francis, and W. J. Ingraham Jr., 1996: Interannual variations in zooplankton biomass in the Gulf of Alaska and covariation with California Current zooplankton biomass. California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations Reports, Vol. 37, 80–99.
Cayan, D. R., 1992: Latent and sensible heat flux anomalies over the northern oceans: Driving the sea surface temperature. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,22, 859–881.
——, A. J. Miller, T. P. Barnett, N. E. Graham, J. N. Ritchie, and J. M. Oberhuber, 1995: Seasonal–interannual fluctuations in surface temperature over the Pacific: Effects of monthly winds and heat fluxes. Natural Climate Variability on Decadal-to-Century Time Scales, National Academy Press, 133–150.
Chelton, D. B., and M. G. Schlax, 1996: Global observations of oceanic Rossby waves. Science,272, 234–238.
Deser, C., and M. Blackmon, 1995: On the relationship between tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature variations. J. Climate,8, 1677–1680.
——, M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 1996: Upper-ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during 1970–1991. J. Climate,9, 1840–1855.
——, ——, and ——, 1999: Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current Extension from the 1970s to the 1980s. J. Climate, in press.
Ebbesmeyer, C. C., D. R. Cayan, D. R. McLain, F. H. Nichols, D. H. Peterson, and K. T. Redmond, 1991: 1976 step in the Pacific climate: Forty environmental changes between 1968–75 and 1977–1984. Proc. 7th Ann. Pacific Climate Workshop, Calif. Dept. of Water Resources, Interagency Ecol. Stud. Prog., Tech. Rep. 26, 115–126.
Emery, W. J., W. G. Lee, and L. Magaard, 1984: Geographic and seasonal distributions of Brunt–Väisälä frequency and Rossby radii in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,14, 294–317.
Frankignoul, C., C. Duchene, and M. A. Cane, 1989: A statistical approach to testing equatorial ocean models with observed data. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,19, 1191–1207.
——, P. Muller, and E. Zorita, 1997: A simple model of the decadal response of the ocean to stochastic wind forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,27, 1533–1546.
Graham, N. E., 1994: Decadal scale variability in the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Climate Dyn.,10, 135–162.
——, T. P. Barnett, R. Wilde, M. Ponater, and S. Schubert, 1994: Low-frequency variability in the winter circulation over the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate,7, 1416–1442.
Hautala, S. L., D. Roemmich, and W. L. Schmitz, 1994: Is the North Pacific in Sverdrup balance along 24°N? J. Geophys. Res.,99, 16 041–16 052.
Inui, T., 1997: A numerical investigation of effects of westerlies variability on the circulation of subducted water. Ph.D. dissertation, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan, 120 pp.
Jacobs, G. A., H. E. Hurlburt, J. C. Kindle, E. J. Metzger, J. L. Mitchell, W. J. Teague, and A. J. Wallcraft, 1994: Decade-scale trans-Pacific propagation and warming effects of an El Niño anomaly. Nature,370, 360–363.
James, I. N., and P. M. James, 1989: Ultra-low-frequency variability in a simple atmospheric model. Nature,342, 53–55.
Jiang, S., F.-F. Jin, and M. Ghil, 1995: Multiple equilibria, periodic, and aperiodic solutions in a wind-driven, double-gyre, shallow-water model. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,25, 764–786.
Jin, F.-F., 1997: A theory of interdecadal climate variability of the North Pacific ocean–atmosphere system. J. Climate,10, 1821–1835.
Killworth, P. D., 1996: Time interpolation of forcing fields in ocean models. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,26, 136–143.
Lagerloef, G. S. E., 1995: Interdecadal variations in the Alaska Gyre. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,25, 2242–2258.
Latif, M., and T. P. Barnett, 1994: Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science,266, 634–637.
——, and ——, 1996: Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: Dynamics and predictability. J. Climate,9, 2407–2423.
Levitus, S., 1982: Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean. NOAA Professional Paper 13, U.S. Government Printing Office, 173 pp. [Available from Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402.].
Liu, Z., 1999: Forced planetary wave responce in a thermocline gyre. J. Phys. Oceanogr., in press.
——, and J. Pedlosky, 1994: Thermocline forced by annual and decadal surface temperature variation. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,24, 587–608.
——, A. Singh, S. Borisov, G. Jacobs, and R. Zhang, 1998: Planetary wave modes in thermocline circulation: Non-Doppler mode, advective mode and green mode. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Mann, M. E., and J. Park, 1996: Joint spatiotemporal modes of surface temperature and sea level pressure variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the last century. J. Climate,9, 2137–2162.
Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,78, 1069–1079.
Meyers, S. D., M. A. Johnson, M. Liu, J. J. O’Brien, and J. L. Spiesberger, 1996: Interdecadal variability in a numerical model of the northeast Pacific Ocean: 1970–89. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,26, 2635–2652.
Miller, A. J., 1996: Recent advances in California Current modeling:Decadal and interannual thermocline variations. California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations Reports, Vol. 37, 69–79.
——, D. R. Cayan, T. P. Barnett, N. E. Graham, and J. M. Oberhuber, 1994a: Interdecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean: Model response to observed heat flux and wind stress anomalies. Climate Dyn.,9, 287–302.
——, ——, ——, ——, and ——, 1994b: The 1976–77 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean. Oceanography,7, 21–26.
——, ——, and J. M. Oberhuber, 1994c: On the re-emergence of midlatitude SST anomalies. Proc. 18th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Boulder, CO, NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center, 149–152.
——, ——, and W. B. White, 1996: Mechanisms of upper-ocean thermal variability in a 1970–88 simulation and observations. Proc. 12th Annual PACLIM Workshop, Pacific Grove, CA, California Department of Water Resources, 19–32.
——, W. B. White, and D. R. Cayan, 1997: North Pacific thermocline variations on ENSO timescales. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,27, 2023–2039.
Nakamura, H., G. Lin, and T. Yamagata, 1997: Decadal climate variability in the North Pacific during recent decades. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,78, 2215–2225.
North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev.,110, 699–706.
Oberhuber, J. M., 1993: Simulation of the Atlantic circulation with a coupled sea ice–mixed layer–isopycnal general circulation model. Part I: Model description. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,23, 808–829.
Pedlosky, J., 1987: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. Springer-Verlag, 710 pp.
Peng, S., W. A. Robinson, and M. P. Hoerling, 1997: The modeled atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies and its dependence on background circulation states. J. Climate,10, 971–987.
Polovina, J., G. T. Mitchum, N. E. Graham, M. P. Craig, E. E. DeMartini, and E. N. Flint, 1994: Physical and biological consequences of a climatic event in the central North Pacific. Fish. Oceanogr.,3, 15–21.
——, ——, and G. T. Evans, 1995: Decadal and basin-scale variations in mixed layer depth and the impact on biological production in the Central and North Pacific. Deep-Sea Res.,42, 1701–1716.
Qiu, B., and T. M. Joyce, 1992: Interannual variability in the mid- and low-latitude western North Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,22, 1062–1079.
Robertson, A. W., 1996: Interdecadal variability over the North Pacific in a multi-century climate simulation. Climate Dyn.,12, 227–241.
——, C.-C. Ma, C. R. Mechoso, and M. Ghil, 1995: Simulation of the tropical Pacific climate with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Part I. The seasonal cycle. J. Climate,8, 1178–1198.
Roemmich, D., and J. McGowan, 1995: Climatic warming and the decline of zooplankton in the California Current. Science,267, 1324–1326.
Schneider, N. S., A. J. Miller, M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, 1999:Subduction of decadal North Pacific temperature anomalies: Observations and dynamics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., in press.
Schröter, J., and C. Wunsch, 1986: Solution of non-linear finite difference ocean models by optimization methods with sensitivity and observational strategy analysis. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,16, 1855–1874.
Schwing, F. B., and R. Mendelssohn, 1997: Increased coastal upwelling in the California Current System. J. Geophys. Res.,102, 3421–3438.
Sekine, Y., 1988: Anomalous southward intrusion of the Oyashio east of Japan. I. Influence of the interannual and seasonal variations in the wind stress over the North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res.,93, 2247–2255.
Spall, M. A., 1996: Dynamics of the Gulf Stream/deep western boundary current crossover. Part II: Low-frequency internal oscillations. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,26, 2169–2182.
Sturges, W., and B. G. Hong, 1995: Wind forcing of the Atlantic thermocline along 32°N at low frequencies. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,25, 1706–1715.
Suga, T., and K. Hanawa, 1990: The mixed-layer climatology in the northwestern part of the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the formation area of Subtropical Model Water. J. Mar. Res.,48, 543–566.
Tabata, S., 1991: Annual and interannual variability of baroclinic transports across Line P in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Deep-Sea Res.,38 (Suppl.), S221–S245.
Tanimoto, Y., N. Iwasaka, K. Hanawa, and Y. Toba, 1993: Characteristic variations of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the North Pacific. J. Climate,6, 1153–1160.
Tourre, Y., W. B. White, and Y. Kushnir, 1999: Evolution of interdecadal variability in SLP, SST and upper-ocean temperature over the Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., in press.
Trenberth, K. E., 1990: Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,71, 988–993.
——, 1991: Recent climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations, M. E. Schlesinger, Ed., Elsevier, 377–390.
——, and J. W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmosphere–ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dyn.,9, 303–319.
Vautard, R., and M. Ghil, 1989: Singular spectrum analysis in non-linear dynamics with application to paleoclimatic time series. Physica D,35, 395–424.
Venzke, S., and M. Latif, 1997: Pacific Ocean response to decadal North Pacific wind stress anomalies. Ann. Geophys.,15(Suppl.), C495.
von Storch, H., and C. Frankignoul, 1996: Empirical modal decomposition in coastal oceanography. The Sea, The Global Coastal Ocean, 1–43.
Wallace, J. M., C. Smith, and Q. Jiang, 1990: Spatial patterns of atmosphere–ocean interaction in the northern winter. J. Climate,3, 990–998.
Watanabe, T., and K. Mizuno, 1994: Decadal changes of the thermal structure in the North Pacific. International WOCE Newsletter, No. 15, 10–13.
Weare, B. C., and J. N. Nasstrom, 1982: Examples of extended empirical orthogonal function analyses. Mon. Wea. Rev.,110, 481–485.
White, W. B., 1995: Design of a global observing system for gyre-scale upper ocean temperature variability. Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 36, Pergamon Press, 169–217.
Xu, W., T. P. Barnett, and M. Latif, 1998: Decadal variability in the North Pacific as simulated by a hybrid coupled model. J. Climate,11, 297–312.
Yamagata, T., and Y. Masumoto, 1992: Interdecadal natural climate variability in the Western Pacific and its implication in global warming. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,70, 167–175.
Yasuda, T., and K. Hanawa, 1997: Decadal changes in the mode waters in the midlatitude North Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,27, 858–870.
Yukimoto, S., M. Endoh, Y. Kitamura, A. Kitoh, T. Motoi, A. Noda, and T. Tokioka, 1996: Climate Dyn.,12, 667–683.
Zhang, R. H., and S. Levitus, 1997: Structure and cycle of decadal variability of upper-ocean temperature in the North Pacific. J. Climate,10, 710–727.
Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J. Climate,10, 1004–1020.