The author would like to thank Dr. T. Delworth for his valuable comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. Drs. A. Grötzner, M. Münnich, D. Rowell, and S. Zebiak, and Messrs. C. Eckert, A. Timmermann, and S. Venzke provided important input to this review paper. This work was partly sponsored by the European Union under Grant EV5V-CT94-0538 and the German government under Grant 07VK01/1.
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