This work was carried out under the Public Meteorological Services Research Programme of The Met. Office with additional financial support from the U.K. Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. John Edwards provided valuable assistance in adapting his new flexible radiation code for use with the troposphere–stratosphere configuration of the UM. Discussions with David Jackson on the performance of the model were extremely useful. Bruce Callander provided suggestions for improving the original manuscript.
Andrews, D. G., J. R. Holton, and C. B. Leovy, 1987: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics. Academic Press, 489 pp.
Austin, J., and N. Butchart, 1994: The influence of climate change and the timing of stratospheric warmings on Arctic ozone depletion. J. Geophys. Res.,99, 1127–1145.
——, ——, and K. Shine, 1992: Possibility of an Arctic ozone hole in a doubled-CO2 climate. Nature,360, 221–225.
——, J. R. Knight, and N. Butchart, 2000: Three-dimensional chemical model simulations of the ozone layer: 1979–2015. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Butchart, N., and J. Austin, 1996: On the relationship between the quasi-biennial oscillation, total chlorine and the severity of the antarctic ozone hole. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,122, 183–217.
——, and ——, 1998: Middle atmosphere climatologies from the troposphere–stratosphere configuration of the UKMO’s unified model. J. Atmos. Sci.,55, 2782–2809.
Carnell, R. E., and C. A. Senior, 1998: Changes in mid-latitude variability due to increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Climate Dyn.,14, 369–383.
Carslaw, K. S., B. P. Luo, S. L. Clegg, Th. Peter, P. Brimblecombe, and P. J. Crutzen, 1994: Stratospheric aerosol growth and HNO3 gas phase depletion from coupled HNO3 and water uptake by liquid particles. Geophys. Res. Lett.,21, 2479–2482.
Chipperfield, M. P., and J. A. Pyle, 1996: Model sensitivity studies of ozone depletion. J. Geophys. Res.,103, 28 389–28 403.
——, A. M. Lee, and J. A. Pyle, 1996: Model calculations of ozone depletion in the Arctic polar vortex for 1991–1992 to 1994–1995. Geophys. Res. Lett.,23, 559–562.
Crutzen, P. J., and F. Arnold, 1986: Nitric acid cloud formation in the cold Antarctic stratosphere: A major cause of the springtime“ozone hole.” Nature,324, 651–655.
Cullen, M. J. P., 1993: The unified forecast/climate model. Meteor. Mag.,122, 81–94.
——, and T. Davies, 1991: A conservative split-explicit integration scheme with fourth-order horizontal advection. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,117, 993–1002.
Drdla, K., and R. P. Turco, 1991: Denitrification through PSC formation: A 1D model incorporating temperature oscillations. J. Atmos. Chem.,12, 319–366.
Dye, J. E., and Coauthors, 1992: Particle size distributions in Arctic polar stratospheric clouds. J. Geophys. Res.,97, 8015–8034.
Edwards, J. M., and A. Slingo, 1996: Studies with a flexible new radiation code. Part I: Choosing a configuration for a large-scale model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,122, 689–719.
Erlebach, P., U. Langematz, and S. Pawson, 1996: Simulations of stratospheric sudden warmings in the Berlin troposphere–stratosphere–mesosphere GCM. Ann. Geophys.,14, 443–463.
Graf, H.-F., I. Kirchner, and J. Perlwitz, 1998: Changing lower stratospheric circulation: The role of ozone and greenhouse gases. J. Geophys. Res.,103, 11 251–11 261.
——, J. Perlwitz, I. Kirchner, and I. Schult, 1995: Recent northern winter climate trends, ozone changes and increased greenhouse gas forcing. Contrib. Phys. Atmos.,68, 233–248.
Gregory, D., G. J. Shutts, and J. R. Mitchell, 1998: A new gravity-wave-drag scheme incorporating anisotropic orography and low-level wave breaking: Impact upon the climate of the UK Meterological Office unified model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,124, 463–493.
Hamilton, K., 1993a: An examination of observed Southern Oscillation effects in the northern stratosphere. J. Atmos. Sci.,50, 44–66.
——, 1993b: A general circulation model simulation of El Niño effects in the extratropical northern stratosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett.,20, 1803–1806.
——, 1995: Interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter middle atmosphere in control and perturbed experiments with the GFDL SKYHI general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci.,52, 44–66.
——, 1996: Comprehensive meteorological modelling of the middle atmosphere: A tutorial review. J. Atmos. Terr. Phys.,58, 1591–1627.
——, 1998: Effects of an imposed quasi-biennial oscillation in a comprehensive troposphere–stratosphere–mesosphere general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci.,55, 2393–2418.
Hansen, J. E., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and J. Glascoe, 1998: Global climate data and models: A reconciliation. Science,281, 230–232.
Hanson, D., and K. Mauersberger, 1988: Laboratory studies of the nitric acid trihydrate: Implications for the south polar stratosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett.,15, 855–858.
Houghton, J. T., L. G. Meira Filho, B. A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, Eds., 1996: Climate Change 1995. Cambridge University Press, 572 pp.
Johns, T. C., R. E. Carnell, J. F. Crossley, J. M. Gregory, J. F. B. Mitchell, C. A. Senior, S. F. B. Tett, and R. A. Wood, 1997: The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM: Model description, spinup and validation. Climate Dyn.,13, 103–134.
Keating, G. M., D. F. Young, and M. C. Pitts, 1987: Ozone reference models for CIRA. Adv. Space Res.,7, 105–115.
Labitzke, K., and H. van Loon, 1992: On the association between the QBO and the extratropical stratosphere. J. Atmos. Terr. Phys.,54, 1453–1463.
Lefèvre, F., G. P. Brasseur, I. Folkins, A. K. Smith, and P. Simon, 1994: Chemistry of the 1991–1992 stratospheric winter: Three-dimensional model simulations. J. Geophys. Res.,99, 8183–8195.
Mahfouf, J. F., D. Cariolle, J.-F. Geleyn, and B. Timbal, 1994: Response of the Météo-France climate model to changes in CO2 and sea surface temperature. Climate Dyn.,9, 345–362.
Mahlman, J. D., J. P. Pinto, and L. J. Umscheid, 1994: Transport, radiative, and dynamical effects of the Antarctic ozone hole: A GFDL “SKYHI” model experiment. J. Atmos. Sci.,51, 489–508.
Mitchell, J. F. B., and T. C. Johns, 1997: On the modification of global warming by sulphate aerosols. J. Climate,10, 245–267.
——, ——, J. M. Gregory, and S. F. B. Tett, 1995: Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Nature,376, 501–504.
Palmer, T. N., G. J. Shutts, and R. Swinbank, 1986: Alleviation of a systematic westerly bias in general circulation and numerical weather prediction models through an orographic gravity wave drag parametrization. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,112, 1001–1039.
Pawson, S., and B. Naujokat, 1997: Trends in daily wintertime temperatures in the northern stratosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett.,24, 575–578.
——, ——, and K. Labitzke, 1995: On the polar stratospheric cloud formation potential of the stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res.,100, 23 215–23 225.
——, and Coauthors, 2000: The GCM–Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS): Scientific issues and initial results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,81, 781–796.
Pitari, G., S. Palermi, G. Visconti, and R. G. Prinn, 1992: Ozone response to a CO2 doubling: Results from a stratospheric general circulation model with heterogeneous chemistry. J. Geophys. Res.,97, 5953–5962.
Pope, V. D., M. Gallani, P. R. Rowntree, and R. Stratton, 2000: The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model—HadAM3. Climate Dyn.,16, 123–146.
Ramaswamy, V., M. D. Schwarzkopf, and W. J. Randel, 1996: Fingerprint of ozone depletion and temporal pattern of recent lower-stratospheric cooling. Nature,382, 616–618.
Rind, D., D. Shindell, P, Lonergan, and N. K. Balachandran, 1998: Climate change and the middle atmosphere. Part III: The doubled CO2 climate revisited. J. Climate,11, 876–894.
Salawitch, R. J., and Coauthors, 1990: Loss of ozone in the Arctic vortex for the winter of 1989. Geophys. Res. Lett.,17, 561–564.
Santee, M. L., A. Tabazadeh, G. L. Manney, R. J. Salawitch, L. Froidevaux, W. G. Read, and J. W. Waters, 1998: UARS microwave limb sounder HNO3 observations: Implications for Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds. J. Geophys. Res.,103, 13 258–13 313.
Santer, B. D., and Coauthors, 1996: A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature,382, 39–46.
Shindell, D. T., D. Rind, and P. Lonergan, 1998: Increased polar stratospheric ozone losses and delayed eventual recovery owing to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations. Nature,392, 589–592.
——, R. L. Miller, G. A. Schmidt, and L. Pandolfo, 1999: Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing. Nature,399, 452–455.
Scaife, A. A., J. Austin, N. Butchart, S. Pawson, M. Keil, J. Nash, and I. N. James, 2000: Seasonal and interannual variability of the stratosphere diagnosed from UKMO TOVS analyses. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Swinbank, R., and A. O’Neill, 1994: A stratosphere–troposphere data assimilation system. Mon. Wea. Rev.,122, 686–702.
——, W. A. Lahoz, A. O’Neill, C. S. Douglas, A. Heaps, and D. Podd, 1998: Middle atmosphere variability in the Meteorological Office unified model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,124, 1485–1526.
Timbal, B., J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer, U. Cubasch, and J. M. Murphy, 1997: Comparison between doubled CO2 time-slice and coupled experiments. J. Climate,10, 1463–1469.
Turco, R. P., O. B. Toon, and P. Hamil, 1989: Heterogeneous physicochemistry of the polar ozone hole. J. Geophys. Res.,94, 16 493–16 510.
van Loon, H., and K. Labitzke, 1987: The Southern Oscillation. Part V: The anomalies in the lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in winter and a comparison with the quasi-biennial oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev.,115, 357–369.
Waibel, A. E., and Coauthors, 1999: Arctic ozone loss due to denitrification. Science,283, 2064–2069.
World Meteorological Organization, 1999: Scientific assessment of ozone depletion: 1998. Rep. No. 44, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Geneva, Switzerland.
Yamaguchi, T., and T. Hirooka, 1996: Relationship between the depth of ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere stratospheric final warming (in Japanese). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,C110.
Zurek, R. W., G. L. Manney, A. J. Miller, M. E. Gelman, and R. M. Nagatani, 1996: Interannual variability of the north pole vortex in the lower stratosphere during the UARS mission. Geophys. Res. Lett.,23, 289–292.