This work was supported by an EOS interdisciplinary Investigation, Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (POLES), under NASA Grant NAGW 2407. We thank I. G. Rigor for providing sea level pressure and surface air temperature data, R. Kwok and H. Stern for their constructive comments, R. E. Moritz and I. G. Rigor for helpful discussions, and A. Schweiger and M. Ortmeyer for computer assistance. We also acknowledge W. D. Hibler III and G. M. Flato’s valuable contributions to the early work on coupling the ice and ocean models.
Arbetter, T. E., J. A. Curry, M. M. Holland, and J. A. Maslanik, 1997:Response of sea-ice models to perturbations in surface heat flux. Ann. Glaciol.,25, 193–197.
Bourke, R. H., and A. S. McLaren, 1992: Contour mapping of Arctic Basin ice draft and roughness parameters. J. Geophys. Res.,97, 17715–17728.
Bryan, K., 1969: A numerical method for the study of the circulation of the world oceans. J. Comput. Phys.,4, 347–376.
Carmack, E. C., R. W. Macdonald, R. G. Perkin, F. A. McLaughlin, and R. J. Pearson, 1995: Evidence for warming of Atlantic Water in the Southern Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean: Results from the Larsen-93 Expedition. Geophys. Res. Lett.,22, 1061– 1064.
Cavalieri, D. J., P. Gloersen, C. L. Parkinson, J. C. Comiso, and H. J. Zwally, 1997: Observed hemispheric asymmetry in global sea ice changes. Science,278, 1104–1106.
Chapman, W. L., and J. E. Walsh, 1993: Recent variations of sea ice and air temperature in high latitudes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,74, 33–47.
Colony, R., 1990: Seasonal mean ice motion in the Arctic Basin. Proc. Int. Conf. on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change, Fairbanks, AK, University of Alaska, 290.
Cox, M. D., 1984: A primitive equation, three-dimensional model of the oceans. GFDL Ocean Group Tech. Rep. 1, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 250 pp. [Available from NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08452.].
Flato, G. M., and W. D. Hibler III, 1995: Ridging and strength in modeling the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice. J. Geophys. Res.,100, 18611–18626.
Gloersen, P., and W. J. Campbell, 1991: Recent variations in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice covers. Nature,352, 33–36.
Harder, M., P. Lemke, and M. Hilmer, 1998: Simulation of sea ice transport through Fram Strait: Natural variability and sensitivity to forcing. J. Geophys. Res.,103, 5595–5606.
Hibler, W. D., III, 1979: A dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,9, 815–846.
——, 1980: Modeling a variable thickness sea ice cover. Mon. Wea Rev.,108, 1943–1973.
——, 1984: The role of sea ice dynamics in modeling CO2 increase. Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, Geophys. Monogr., No. 29, Amer. Geophys. Union, 238–253.
——, and K. Bryan, 1987: A diagnostic ice&ndash∘ean model. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,17, 987–1015.
——, and J. Zhang, 1993: Interannual and climatic characteristics of an ice–ocean circulation model. Proc. NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Ice and Climate, Aussois, France, NATO, 633– 651.
——, and ——, 1995: On the effect of ice-dynamics on oceanic thermohaline circulation. Ann. Glaciol.,21, 361–368.
Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation:Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science,269, 676–679.
Johannessen, O. M., M. Miles, and E. Bjorgo, 1995: The Arctic’s shrinking sea ice. Nature,376, 126–127.
Kraus, E. B., and J. S. Turner, 1967: A one-dimensional model of the seasonal thermocline: II. The general theory and its consequences. Tellus,19, 98–106.
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock, 1999: Variability of Fram Strait Flux and North Atlantic oscillation. J. Geophys. Res.,104, 5177– 5189.
Levitus, S., 1982: Climatological Atlas of the World Ocean. NOAA Prof. Paper 13, 173 pp.
Martin, S., and E. A. Munoz, 1997: Properties of the Arctic 2-meter air temperature field for 1979 to the present derived from a new gridded dataset. J. Climate,10, 1428–1440.
Maslanik, J. A., M. C. Serreze, and R. G. Barry, 1996: Recent decreases in Arctic summer ice cover and linkages to atmospheric circulation anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett.,23, 1677–1680.
——, C. Fowler, W. Emery, and J. Weatherly, 1998: On the interannual variability of Arctic sea ice transport: Relationships to atmospheric circulation modes and significance for GCM assessments. Proc. ACSYS Conf. on Polar Processes and Global Climate, WCRP-106, WMO/TD No. 908, Rosario, Orcas Island, WA, WMO, 156–158.
Maykut, G. A., 1982: Large-scale heat exchange and ice production in the Central Arctic. J. Geophys. Res.,87, 7971–7984.
McLaughlin, F. A., E. C. Carmack, R. W. Mcdonald, and J. K. B. Bishop, 1996: Physical and geochemical properties across the Atlantic/Pacific water mass front in the southern Canadian Basin. J. Geophys. Res.,101, 1183–1197.
Morison, J. H., M. Steele, and R. Anderson, 1998: Hydrography of the upper Arctic Ocean measured from the nuclear submarine USS Pargo.Deep-Sea Res.,45, 15–38.
Niiler, P. P., and E. B. Kraus, 1977: One-dimensional models of the upper ocean. Modelling and Prediction of the Upper Layers of the Ocean, E. B. Kraus, Ed., Pergamon Press, 143–172.
Parkinson, C. L., and W. M. Washington, 1979: A large-scale numerical model of sea ice. J. Geophys. Res.,84, 311–337.
Rigor, I. G., R. L. Colony, and S. Martin, 2000: Variations in surface air temperature observations in the Arctic, 1979–97. J. Climate,13, 896–914.
Rothrock, D. A., Y. Yu, and G. A. Maykut, 1999: Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett.,26, 3469–3472.
Semtner, A. J., Jr., 1986: Finite-difference formulation of a world ocean model. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Physical Oceanographic Numerical Modeling, J. O’Brien, Ed., D. Riedel, 187–202.
Serreze, M. C., R. G. Barry, and A. S. McLaren, 1989: Seasonal variations in sea ice motion and effects on sea ice concentration in the Canada Basin. J. Geophys. Res.,94, 10955–10970.
——, J. E. Box, R. G. Barry, and J. E. Walsh, 1993: Characteristics of Arctic synoptic activity, 1952–1989. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,51, 147–164.
——, J. A. Maslanik, J. R. Key, R. F. Kokaly, and D. A. Robinson, 1995: Diagnosis of the record minimum in Arctic sea ice area during 1990 and associated snow cover extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett.,22, 2183–2186.
Steele, M., and T. Boyd, 1998: Retreat of the cold halocline layer in the Arctic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res.,103, 10419–10435.
——, J. Zhang, D. A. Rothrock, and H. Stern, 1997: The force balance of sea ice in a numerical model of the Arctic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res.,102, 21061–21079.
Thomas, D., 1999: The quality of sea ice velocity estimates. J. Geophys. Res.,104, 13627–13652.
Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett.,25, 1297–1300.
Thorndike, A. S., and R. Colony, 1982: Sea ice motion in response to geostrophic winds. J. Geophys. Res.,87, 5845–5852.
——, ——, and E. Munoz, 1983: Arctic Ocean buoy program. Data Report, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, 132 pp. [Available from Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th St., Seattle, WA 98105.].
Vowinckel, E., and S. Orvig, 1970: The climate of the North Polar Basin. Climates of the Polar Regions, S. Orvig, Ed., Vol. 14, World Survey of Climatology, Elsevier, 1–37.
Walsh, J. E., W. L. Chapman, and T. L. Shy, 1996: Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central Arctic. J. Climate,9, 480– 486.
Zhang, J., 1993: A high-resolution ice&ndash∘ean model with imbedded mixed layer. Ph.D. thesis, Dartmouth College, 229 pp. [Available from Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755.].
——, and W. D. Hibler III, 1997: On an efficient numerical method for modeling sea ice dynamics. J. Geophys. Res.,102, 8691– 8702.
——, D. A. Rothrock, and M. Steele, 1998a: Warming of the Arctic Ocean by a strengthened Atlantic inflow: Model results. Geophys. Res. Lett.,25, 1745–1748.
——, W. D. Hibler III, M. Steele, and D. A. Rothrock, 1998b: Arctic ice&ndash∘ean modeling with and without climate restoring. J. Phys. Oceanogr.,28, 191–217.