This work was supported by NOAA Grant UCSIO-CU-02165401SCF, NOAA Grant NA16GP2024, and NSF Grants ATM-9986515 and ATM-9986072. We would like to thank Adam Sobel, Huei-Ping Huang, and Mark Cane for useful conversations. We thank David DeWitt and Lisa Goddard and all at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction for excellent and swift cooperation. The comments and criticisms of three anonymous reviewers led to an improved manuscript.
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