RLS's work was carried out primarily during a series of visits to the Geophysical Statistics Project at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF Grant DMS-9312686), and was also supported by NSF Grant DMS-9705166. TMLW was supported by the NOAA Office of Climate Programs (Climate Change Data and Detection) Grant NA87GP0105 and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grant DE-FG02-98ER62601. BDS's work was performed under the auspices of the Environmental Sciences Division of DOE, Contract W-7405-ENG-48.
Barnett, T. P., , and M. E. Schlesinger, 1987: Detecting changes in global climate induced by greenhouse gases. J. Geophys. Res., 92 , 14772–14780.
Hasselmann, K., 1998: Conventional and Bayesian approach to climate-change detection and attribution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124 , 2541–2565.
Hegerl, G., , K. Hasselmann, , U. Cubasch, , J. F. B. Mitchell, , E. Roeckner, , R. Voss, , and J. Waszkewitz, 1996a: On multi-fingerprint detection and attribution of greenhouse gas and aerosol forced climate change. MPI Rep. 207, 70 pp.
Hegerl, G., , H. von Storch, , K. Hasselmann, , B. D. Santer, , U. Cubasch, , and P. D. Jones, 1996b: Detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climate change with an optimal fingerprint method. J. Climate, 9 , 2281–2306.
Hoyt, D. V., , and K. H. Schatten, 1993: A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992. J. Geophys. Res., 98 (A11) 18895–18906.
Kattenberg, A., and Coauthors. 1996: Climate model projections of future climate. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, J. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 285–357.
Kaufmann, R. K., , and D. I. Stern, 1997: Evidence for human influence on climate from hemispheric temperature relations. Nature, 388 , 39–44.
Können, G. P., , P. D. Jones, , M. H. Kaltofen, , and R. J. Allan, 1998: Pre-1866 extensions of the Southern Oscillation index using early Indonesian and Tahitian meteorological readings. J. Climate, 11 , 2325–2339.
Lean, J., , J. Beer, , and R. Bradley, 1995: Reconstructions of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 22 , 3195–3198.
Manabe, S., , and R. J. Stouffer, 1994: Multiple century response of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. J. Climate, 7 , 5–23.
Nicholls, N., , G. V. Gruza, , J. Jouzel, , T. R. Karl, , L. A. Ogallo, , and D. E. Parker, 1996: Observed climate variability and change. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, J. Houghton, et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 133–192.
Raper, S. C. B., , T. M. L. Wigley, , and R. A. Warrick, 1996: Global sea level rise: Past and future. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence: Causes, Consequences and Strategies, J. D. Milliman and B. U. Haq, Eds., Kluwer Academic, 11–45.
Santer, B. D., , K. E. Taylor, , T. M. L. Wigley, , J. E. Penner, , P. D. Jones, , and U. Cubasch, 1995: Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate. Climate Dyn., 12 , 77–100.
Stott, P. A., , S. F. B. Tett, , G. S. Jones, , M. R. Allen, , W. J. Ingram, , and J. F. B. Mitchell, 2000: Attribution of twentieth century temperature change to natural and anthropogenic causes. Climate Dyn., 17 , 1–21.
Tett, S. F. B., , P. A. Stott, , M. R. Allen, , W. J. Ingram, , and J. F. B. Mitchell, 1999: Causes of twentieth-century temperature change near the Earth's surface. Nature, 399 , 569–572.
Timmermann, A., , J. M. Oberhuber, , A. Bacher, , M. Esch, , M. Latif, , and E. Roeckner, 1999: Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature, 398 , 694–696.
Wigley, T. M. L., , and S. C. B. Raper, 1992: Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature, 357 , 293–300.
Wigley, T. M. L., , P. D. Jones, , and S. C. B. Raper, 1997: The observed global warming record: What does it tell us? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 94 , 8314–8320.
Wigley, T. M. L., , R. L. Smith, , and B. D. Santer, 1998: Anthropogenic influence on the autocorrelation function of hemispheric-mean temperatures. Science, 282 , 1676–1679.
Woodward, W. A., , and H. L. Gray, 1993: Global warming and the problem of testing for a trend in time series analysis. J. Climate, 6 , 953–962.