This work has been supported by National Science Foundation Grant ATM-0110061 and the NOAA/OGP cooperative agreement with Columbia University in support of the IRI. We thank Dr. Ligiang Sun and Ms. Huilan Li of the IRI for running and compiling the ECHAM4.5 for the grid points over Nordeste, Dierk Polzin at the University of Wisconsin for assistance with computations and graphics, and the editor and reviewers for their comments.
Anderson, J., H. Van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999: Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 80 , 1349–1361.
Bamzai, A. S., and J. Shukla, 1999: Relation between Eurasian snow cover, snow depth, and the Indian summer monsoon: An observational study. J. Climate, 12 , 3117–3132.
Barnston, A. G., M. H. Glantz, and Y. He, 1999: Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997– 98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 80 , 217–243.
Curtis, S., and S. Hastenrath, 1995: Forcing of anomalous sea surface temperature evolution in the tropical Atlantic during Pacific warm events. J. Geophys. Res, 100 (C8) 15835–15847.
Folland, C. K., A. W. Colman, D. P. Rowell, and M. K. Davey, 2001: Predictability of northeast Brazil rainfall and real-time forecast skill, 1987–98. J. Climate, 14 , 1937–1958.
Goddard, L., and S. J. Mason, 2002: Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies. Climate Dyn.,19, doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0251-y.
Goddard, L., S. J. Mason, S. E. Zebiak, C. F. Ropelewski, R. Basher, and M. A. Cane, 2001: Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. Int. J. Climatol, 21 , 1111–1152.
Greischar, L., and S. Hastenrath, 2000: The rainy seasons of the 1990s in northeast Brazil: Real-time forecasts and verification. J. Climate, 13 , 3821–3826.
Hastenrath, S., 2002: Climate prediction (empirical and numerical). Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, J. Holton et al., Eds., Academic Press, 411–417.
Hastenrath, S., and L. Greischar, 1993a: Further work on the prediction of northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies. J. Climate, 6 , 743–758.
Hastenrath, S., and L. Greischar, 1993b: Circulation mechanisms related to northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies. J. Geophys. Res, 98 (D3) 5093–5102.
New, M. G., M. Hulme, and P. D. Jones, 1999: Representing twentieth-century space–time climate variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Climate, 12 , 829–856.
Nicholls, N., 1984: The stability of empirical long-range forecast techniques: A case study. J. Climate Appl. Meteor, 23 , 143–147.
Palmer, T. N., and D. L. T. Anderson, 1994: The prospect for seasonal forecasting—A review paper. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 120 , 755–793.
Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie Rep. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp.
Webster, P. J., V. O. Magana, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons, processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res, 103 (C7) 14451–14510.