GCH was supported by NSF Grants ATM-0002206 and ATM-0296007, by NOAA Grant NA16GP2683 and NOAA’s Office of Global Programs, by DOE in conjunction with the Climate Change Data and Detection element, and by Duke University. We are very grateful to Richard Chandler for deriving the proof that appears in the appendix. We thank Nathan Gillett, Viatcheslav Kharin, Chris Ferro, Editor David Stephenson, and two anonymous reviewers for their comments that improved an earlier draft of this paper.
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