We thank M. Kanamitsu for many insightful discussions and for his help with the model. The comments of three anonymous reviewers greatly helped to improve this paper. Funding for this research was provided by a cooperative agreement with NOAA (NA77RJ0435 and NA17R1231) and NASA Grant NAG8-175. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of NOAA and NASA. We thank the Maui High Performance Computing Center and the San Diego Supercomputing Center for providing computing time. This work is part of the Ph.D. thesis of T. Reichler.
Anderson, J., H. Van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999: Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80 , 1349–1361.
Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125 , 99–119.
Goddard, L., and S. J. Mason, 2002: Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies. Climate Dyn., 19 , 619–632.
Jin, F., and B. J. Hoskins, 1995: The direct response to tropical heating in a baroclinic atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 52 , 307–319.
Kanamitsu, M., 1985: A study of the predictability of the ECMWF operational forecast model in the tropics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 63 , 779–804.
Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woolen, S-K. Yang, J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002a: NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 1631–1643.
Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP–NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 247–267.
Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1994: Observations of the 40–50-day tropical oscillation—A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122 , 814–837.
Mason, S. J., L. Goddard, N. E. Graham, E. Yulaeva, L. Q. Sun, and P. A. Arkin, 1999: The IRI seasonal climate prediction system and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80 , 1853–1873.
Newell, R. E., and Z-X. Wu, 1992: The interrelationship between temperature changes in the free atmosphere and sea-surface temperature changes. J. Geophys. Res., 97D , 3693–3709.
Reichler, T., and J. O. Roads, 2003: The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 10 , 211–232.
Reichler, T., and J. O. Roads, 2005: Long-range predictability in the Tropics. Part II: 30–60-day variability. J. Climate, 18 , 634–650.
Reynolds, C. A., P. J. Webster, and E. Kalnay, 1994: Random error growth in NMC global forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122 , 1281–1305.
Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith, 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J. Climate, 7 , 929–948.
Roads, J. O., S. C. Chen, and F. Fujioka, 2001: ECPC’s weekly to seasonal global forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 639–658.
Xie, P. P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 2539–2558.
Yulaeva, E., and J. M. Wallace, 1994: The signature of ENSO in global temperature and precipitation fields derived from the microwave sounding unit. J. Climate, 7 , 1719–1736.