We are grateful to one anonymous reviewer for many constructive comments and criticisms. This paper is funded in part by a grant from NOAA. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its subagencies.
Berliner, L. M., , C. K. Wilke, , and N. Cressie, 2000: Long-lead prediction of Pacific SSTs via Bayesian dynamic modeling. J. Climate, 13 , 3953–3968.
Chu, P-S., 2002: Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate, 15 , 2678–2689.
Chu, P-S., , and X. Zhao, 2004: Bayesian change-point analysis of tropical cyclone activity: The central North Pacific case. J. Climate, 17 , 4893–4901.
Clark, J. D., , and P-S. Chu, 2002: Interannual variation of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80 , 403–418.
Collins, J. M., , and I. M. Mason, 2000: Local environmental conditions related to seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the northeast Pacific basin. Geophys. Res. Lett, 27 , 3881–3884.
Deser, C., , A. S. Phillips, , and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the Tropics and the North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17 , 3109–3124.
Elsner, J. B., , X. Niu, , and T. H. Jagger, 2004: Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. J. Climate, 17 , 2652–2666.
Epstein, E. S., 1985: Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach. Meteor. Monogr, No. 42, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 199 pp.
Goldenberg, S. B., , C. W. Landsea, , A. M. Mestas-Nunez, , and W. M. Gray, 2001: The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293 , 474–479.
Mantua, N. J., , S. R. Hare, , Y. Zhang, , J. M. Wallace, , and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 78 , 1069–1079.
Whitney, L. D., , and J. S. Hobgood, 1997: The relationship between sea surface temperatures and maximum intensities of tropical cyclone intensities in the eastern North Pacific. J. Climate, 10 , 2921–2930.