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Reconstructing a Partially Observed Record of Tropical Cyclone Counts

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  • 1 woods Hole oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
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Abstract

An approach to reconstructing a partially observed annual time series of tropical cyclone counts is presented. The approach is based on a simple model of the time series of true counts and on a simple model of the way in which this time series is observed through time. The approach is applied to a record of observed tropical cyclone counts for the Australian region for the period 1910–88. Some diagnostics are presented that indicate the model performs fairly well at reproducing the behavior of the observed counts.

Abstract

An approach to reconstructing a partially observed annual time series of tropical cyclone counts is presented. The approach is based on a simple model of the time series of true counts and on a simple model of the way in which this time series is observed through time. The approach is applied to a record of observed tropical cyclone counts for the Australian region for the period 1910–88. Some diagnostics are presented that indicate the model performs fairly well at reproducing the behavior of the observed counts.

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