Discussions with Prof. David Straus of COLA and comments from Prof. Brian Hoskins are appreciated. Dr. Gisela Speidel is thanked for editorial assistance. This research is partly funded by the Japan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) through its sponsorship of the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC). The Max Planck Institute makes the ECHAM model available to the IPRC under a cooperative agreement. We thank the CCSR/University of Tokyo for making available the model for our use. The authors sincerely thank all of the three anonymous reviewers, whose comments and critiques improved the quality of the manuscript.
Alexander, M. A., , L. Blade, , M. Newman, , J. R. Lanzante, , N. C. Lau, , and J. D. Scott, 2002: The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J. Climate, 15 , 2205–2231.
Annamalai, H., , and R. Murtugudde, 2004: Role of the Indian Ocean in regional climate variability. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction. Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union. 213–246.
Annamalai, H., , and P. Liu, 2005: Response of the Asian summer monsoon to changes in El Niño properties. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131 , 805–831.
Annamalai, H., , and K. R. Sperber, 2005: Regional heat sources and the active and break phases of boreal summer intraseasonal (30–50 day) variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 62 , 2726–2748.
Annamalai, H., , P. Liu, , and S. P. Xie, 2005a: Southwest Indian Ocean SST variability: Its local effect and remote influence on Asian monsoons. J. Climate, 18 , 4150–4167.
Annamalai, H., , S. P. Xie, , J. P. McCreary, , and R. Murtugudde, 2005b: Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. J. Climate, 18 , 302–319.
Arakawa, A., , and W. H. Schubert, 1974: Interaction of cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment, Part I. J. Atmos. Sci., 31 , 671–701.
Barnston, A. G., and Coauthors, 1999: NCEP forecasts of the El Niño of 1997–98 and its U.S. impacts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80 , 1829–1852.
Barsugli, J. J., , and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2002: Global atmospheric sensitivity to tropical SST anomalies throughout the Indo-Pacific basin. J. Climate, 15 , 3427–3442.
Blackmon, M. L., , J. E. Geisler, , and E. J. Pitcher, 1983: A general circulation model study of January climate anomaly patterns associated with interannual variation of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. J. Atmos. Sci., 40 , 1410–1425.
Branstator, G., 1985: Analysis of general circulation model sea surface temperature anomaly simulations using a linear model. Part II: Eigenanalysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 42 , 2242–2254.
Branstator, G., 2002: Circumglobal teleconnections, the jet stream waveguide, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 15 , 1893–1910.
Carton, J., , G. Chepurin, , X. Cao, , and B. Giese, 2000: A simple ocean data assimilation analysis of the global upper ocean 1950–95. Part I: Methodology. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30 , 294–309.
Farrara, J. D., , C. R. Mechoso, , and A. W. Robertson, 2000: Ensembles of AGCM two-tier predictions and simulations of the circulation anomalies during winter 1997–98. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128 , 3589–3604.
Geisler, J. E., , M. L. Blackmon, , G. T. Bates, , and S. Munoz, 1985: Sensitivity of January climate response to the magnitude and position of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 42 , 1037–1049.
Goddard, L., , and N. E. Graham, 1999: Importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa. J. Geophys. Res., 104 , 19099–19116.
Graham, N. E., , and T. P. Barnett, 1987: Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection over tropical oceans. Science, 258 , 657–659.
Held, I. M., , S. W. Lyons, , and S. Nigam, 1989: Transients and the extratropical response to El Niño. J. Atmos. Sci., 46 , 163–174.
Hoerling, M. P., , and A. Kumar, 1997: Why do North American climate anomalies differ from one El Niño event to another? Geophys. Res. Lett., 24 , 1059–1062.
Hoerling, M. P., , and A. Kumar, 2002: Atmospheric response patterns associated with tropical forcing. J. Climate, 15 , 2184–2203.
Hoerling, M. P., , A. Kumar, , and M. Zhong, 1997: El Niño, La Niña, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate, 10 , 1769–1786.
Hoerling, M. P., , J. W. Hurrell, , T. Xu, , G. T. Bates, , and A. S. Phillips, 2004: Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Climate Dyn., 23 , 391–405.
Horel, J. D., , and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109 , 813–829.
Hoskins, B. J., , and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38 , 1179–1196.
Hoskins, B. J., , and T. Ambrizzi, 1993: Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 50 , 1661–1671.
Hsu, H-H., , and S-H. Lin, 1992: Global teleconnections in the 250-mb streamfunction field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120 , 1169–1190.
Huang, B. H., , and J. L. Kinter, 2002: The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean and its relations to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 107 .3199, doi:10.1029/2001JC001278.
Jin, F., , and B. J. Hoskins, 1995: The direct response to tropical heating in a baroclinic atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 52 , 307–319.
Klein, S. A., , B. J. Soden, , and N-C. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J. Climate, 12 , 917–932.
Kumar, A., , and M. P. Hoerling, 1997: Interpretation and implications of the observed inter–El Niño variability. J. Climate, 10 , 83–91.
Kumar, A., , and M. P. Hoerling, 1998a: Annual cycle of Pacific–North American seasonal predictability associated with different phases of ENSO. J. Climate, 11 , 3295–3308.
Kumar, A., , and M. P. Hoerling, 1998b: Specification of regional sea surface temperatures in atmospheric general circulation model simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 8901–8907.
Kumar, A., , M. P. Hoerling, , M. Ji, , and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1996: Assessing a GCM’s suitability for making seasonal predictions. J. Climate, 9 , 115–129.
Kumar, A., , A. G. Barnston, , P. Peng, , M. P. Hoerling, , and L. Goddard, 2000: Changes in the spread of the variability of the seasonal mean atmospheric states associated with ENSO. J. Climate, 13 , 3139–3151.
Latif, M., , T. P. Barnett, , M. A. Cane, , M. Flugel, , N. E. Graham, , H. Von Storch, , J. S. Xu, , and S. E. Zebiak, 1994: A review of ENSO prediction studies. Climate Dyn., 9 , 167–179.
Lau, N. C., 1981: A diagnostic study of recurrent meteorological anomalies appearing in a 15-year simulation with a GFDL general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109 , 2287–2311.
Lau, N. C., 1985: Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed El Niños in 1962–1976. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113 , 1970–1996.
Lau, N. C., 1997: Interactions between global SST anomalies and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 21–33.
Lau, N. C., , and M. J. Nath, 1994: A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere–ocean system. J. Climate, 7 , 1184–1207.
Lau, N. C., , and M. J. Nath, 2000: Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian–Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J. Climate, 13 , 4287–4309.
Lau, N. C., , and M. J. Nath, 2003: Atmosphere–ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO episodes. J. Climate, 16 , 3–20.
Lau, N. C., , A. Leetmaa, , M. J. Nath, , and H. L. Wang, 2005: Influences of ENSO-induced Indo–western Pacific SST anomalies on extratropical atmospheric variability during the boreal summer. J. Climate, 18 , 2922–2942.
Le Treut, H., , and Z. X. Li, 1991: Sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model to prescribed SST changes: Feedback effects associated with the simulation of cloud optical properties. Climate Dyn., 5 , 175–187.
Manabe, S., , J. Smagorinsky, , and R. F. Strickler, 1965: Simulated climatology of a general circulation model with a hydrologic cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 93 , 769–798.
Mlawer, E. J., , S. J. Taubman, , P. D. Brown, , K. J. Iacono, , and S. A. Clough, 1997: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102 , 16663–16682.
Morcrette, J. J., , S. A. Clough, , E. J. Mlawer, , and M. J. Iacono, 1998: Impact of a validated radiative transfer scheme, RRTM, on the ECMWF model climate and 10-day forecasts. Tech. Memo. 252, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 47 pp.
Murtugudde, R., , and A. J. Busalacchi, 1999: Interannual variability of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 12 , 2300–2326.
Nakajima, T., , and M. Tanaka, 1986: Matrix formulation for the transfer of solar radiation in a plane-parallel scattering atmosphere. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer, 35 , 13–21.
Newman, M., , and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1998: The impact of the annual cycle on the North Pacific–North American response to remote low-frequency forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 55 , 1336–1353.
Numaguti, A., , M. Takahashi, , T. Nakajima, , and A. Sumi, 1995: Development of CCSR/NIES Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Climate System Dynamics and Modeling, T. Matsuno, Ed., CCSR/University of Tokyo, 1–29.
Palmer, T. N., , and D. A. Mansfield, 1986: A study of wintertime circulation anomalies during past El Niño events using a high resolution general circulation model: Influence of model climatology. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112 , 639–660.
Pan, Y. H., , and A. H. Oort, 1983: Global climate variations connected with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for the 1958–73 period. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111 , 1244–1258.
Peng, P., , and A. Kumar, 2005: A large ensemble analysis of the influence of tropical SSTs on seasonal atmospheric variability. J. Climate, 18 , 1068–1085.
Reed, R. J., , and E. E. Recker, 1971: Structure and properties of synoptic-scale wave disturbances in the equatorial western Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28 , 1117–1133.
Reynolds, R. W., , and T. M. Smith, 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. J. Climate, 7 , 929–948.
Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 1996: Atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. MPI Rep. 218, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 82 pp.
Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 2003: Atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5: Part I. MPI Rep. 349, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 140 pp.
Sardeshmukh, P. D., , and B. J. Hoskins, 1988: The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence. J. Atmos. Sci., 45 , 1228–1251.
Schulz, J. P., , L. Dümenil, , and J. Polcher, 2001: On the land surface–atmosphere coupling and its impact in a single-column atmospheric model. J. Appl. Meteor., 40 , 642–663.
Shen, X., , M. Kimoto, , A. Sumi, , A. Numaguti, , and J. Matsumoto, 2001: Simulation of the 1998 East Asian summer monsoon by the CCSR/NIES AGCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 79 , 741–757.
Shukla, J., , and J. M. Wallace, 1983: Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response to equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 40 , 1613–1630.
Simmons, A. J., 1982: The forcing of stationary wave motion by tropical diabatic heating. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 108 , 503–534.
Simmons, A. J., , J. M. Wallace, , and G. W. Branstator, 1983: Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 40 , 1363–1392.
Spencer, H., , J. M. Slingo, , and M. K. Davey, 2004: Seasonal predictability of ENSO teleconnections: The role of the remote ocean response. Climate Dyn., 22 , 511–526.
Sperber, K. R., , and T. N. Palmer, 1996: Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. J. Climate, 9 , 2727–2750.
Su, H., , J. D. Neelin, , and C. Chou, 2001: Tropical teleconnection and local response to SST anomalies during the 1997–98 El Niño. J. Geophys. Res., 106 , 20025–20043.
Sumi, A., 2000: Climate simulation studies at CCSR. General Circulation Model Development: Past, Present and Future, D. A. Randall, Ed., Academic Press, 489–508.
Tiedtke, M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117 , 1779–1800.
Ting, M., , and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1993: Factors determining the extratropical response to equatorial diabatic heating anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 50 , 907–918.
Ting, M., , and L. Yu, 1998: Steady response to tropical heating in wavy linear and nonlinear baroclinic models. J. Atmos. Sci., 55 , 3565–3582.
Tompkins, A., 2002: A prognostic parameterization for the subgrid-scale variability of water vapor and clouds in a large-scale model and its use to diagnose cloud cover. J. Atmos. Sci., 59 , 1917–1942.
Trenberth, K. E., , G. W. Branstator, , D. Karoly, , A. Kumar, , N. C. Lau, , and C. Ropelewski, 1998: Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 14291–14324.
Wallace, J. M., , and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109 , 784–812.
Wallace, J. M., , E. M. Rasmusson, , T. P. Mitchell, , V. E. Kousky, , E. S. Sarachik, , and H. von Storch, 1998: On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA. J. Geophys. Res., 103 , 14241–14259.
Watanabe, M., 2004: Asian jet waveguide and a downstream extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 17 , 4674–4691.
Watanabe, M., , and M. Kimoto, 2000: Atmosphere–ocean thermal coupling in the North Atlantic: A positive feedback. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126 , 3343–3369.
Watanabe, M., , and F-F. Jin, 2003: A moist linear baroclinic model: Coupled dynamical–convective response to El Niño. J. Climate, 16 , 1121–1139.
Webster, P. J., 1981: Mechanisms determining the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 38 , 554–571.
Wu, Z., , E. S. Sarachik, , and D. Battisti, 2000: Vertical structure of convective heating and the three-dimensional structure of the forced circulation on an equatorial beta plane. J. Atmos. Sci., 57 , 2169–2187.
Xie, P., , and P. Arkin, 1996: Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions. J. Climate, 9 , 840–858.
Xie, S-P., , H. Annamalai, , F. A. Schott, , and J. P. McCreary, 2002: Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. J. Climate, 15 , 864–878.