The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of CPC personnel who helped us pull together the gauge precipitation and reanalysis datasets used in this study, including Drs. Pingping Xie and Muthuvel Chelliah. We also thank Dr. Vernon Kousky, Mike Halpert, and four anonymous reviewers for insightful comments on early drafts of this work.
Ambaum, M. H. P., , B. J. Hoskins, , and D. B. Stephenson, 2001: Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation? J. Climate, 14 , 3495–3507.
Arkin, P. A., 1982: The relationship between interannual variability in the 200-mb tropical wind field and the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110 , 1393–1404.
Bhlame, H. N., , D. A. Mooley, , and S. K. Jadhav, 1983: Fluctuations in the drought/flood area over India and relationships with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111 , 86–94.
Bjerknes, J., 1966: A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature. Tellus, 18 , 820–829.
Caviedes, C. N., 1973: Secas and El Niño: Two simultaneous climatological hazards in South America. Proc. Assoc. Amer. Geogr., 5 , 44–49.
Cayan, D. R., , M. Dettinger, , H. Diaz, , and N. E. Graham, 1998: Decadal variability of precipitation over western North America. J. Climate, 11 , 3148–3166.
Cayan, D. R., , K. T. Redmond, , and L. G. Riddle, 1999: ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States. J. Climate, 12 , 2881–2893.
CCSP, 2003: Strategic plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. 211 pp.
Changnon, S. A., 1998: Comments on “Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States.”. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 2550–2552.
Charba, J. P., , A. W. Harrell III, , and A. C. Lackner III, 1992: A monthly precipitation amount climatology derived from published atlas maps: Development of a digital data base. NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce, TDL Office Note 92-7, 20 pp.
Dettinger, M. D., , D. R. Cayan, , H. F. Diaz, , and D. Meko, 1998: North–south precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal time scales. J. Climate, 11 , 3095–3111.
Easterling, D. R., , J. L. Evans, , P. Ya Groisman, , T. R. Karl, , K. E. Kunkel, , and P. Ambenje, 2000: Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 417–425.
Ebbesmeyer, C. C., , D. R. Cayan, , D. R. Milan, , F. H. Nichols, , D. H. Peterson, , and K. T. Redmond, 1991: 1976 step in the Pacific climate: Forty environmental changes between 1968–1975 and 1977–1984. California Department of Water Resources, Interagency Ecological Studies Program Tech. Rep. 26, 115–126.
Frederiksen, C. S., , and X. Zheng, 2004: Variability of seasonal mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability: Part 2, Application to NH winter circulations. Climate Dyn., 23 , 193–206.
Gershunov, A., 1998: ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: Implications for long-range predictability. J. Climate, 11 , 3192–3203.
Gershunov, A., , and T. Barnett, 1998a: ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: Observations and model results. J. Climate, 11 , 1575–1586.
Gershunov, A., , and T. Barnett, 1998b: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 2715–2725.
Gershunov, A., , and D. Cayan, 2003: Heavy daily precipitation frequency over the contiguous United States: Sources of climatic variability and seasonal predictability. J. Climate, 16 , 2752–2765.
Gershunov, A., , T. Barnett, , and D. Cayan, 1999: North Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation seen as factor in ENSO-related North American climate anomalies. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 80 , 25–30.
Glahn, H. R., , T. L. Chambers, , W. S. Richardson, , and H. P. Perrotti, 1985: Objective map analysis for the local AFOS MOS Program. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS TDL 75, 34 pp.
Graham, N. E., 1994: Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Climate Dyn., 10 , 135–162.
Groisman, P. Ya, and Coauthors, 1998: Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: Important indicators of climatic change. Climatic Change, 42 , 243–283.
Groisman, P. Ya, , R. W. Knight, , and T. R. Karl, 2001: Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the 20th century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 219–246.
Groisman, P. Ya, , R. W. Knight, , T. R. Karl, , D. R. Easterling, , B. Sun, , and J. H. Lawrimore, 2004: Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations. J. Hydrometeor., 5 , 65–84.
Groisman, P. Ya, , R. W. Knight, , T. R. Karl, , D. R. Easterling, , G. Hegerl, , and V. Razuvaev, 2005: Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J. Climate, 18 , 1326–1350.
Gu, D. F., , and S. G. H. Philander, 1997: Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. Science, 275 , 805–807.
Halpert, M. S., , and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 5 , 577–593.
Hare, S. R., , and N. J. Mantua, 2000: Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog. Oceanogr., 47 , 103–145.
Higgins, R. W., , J. E. Janowiak, , and Y. Yao, 1996: A Gridded Hourly Precipitation Data Base for the United States (1963–1993). NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Atlas 1, 47 pp.
Higgins, R. W., , A. Leetmaa, , Y. Xue, , and A. Barnston, 2000a: Dominant factors influencing the seasonal predictability of U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature. J. Climate, 13 , 3994–4017.
Higgins, R. W., , W. Shi, , E. Yarosh, , and R. Joyce, 2000b: Improved United States Precipitation Quality Control System and Analysis. NCEP/Climate Prediction Center Atlas 7, 40 pp.
Hoerling, M. P., , J. W. Hurrell, , and T. Xu, 2001: Tropical origins for recent north Atlantic climate change. Science, 292 , 90–92.
Horel, J. D., , and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109 , 813–829.
Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation region temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269 , 676–679.
Karl, T. R., , and R. W. Knight, 1998: Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79 , 1107–1119.
Karl, T. R., , R. W. Knight, , and N. Plummer, 1995: Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century. Nature, 377 , 217–220.
Karoly, D. R., , A. Plumb, , and M. Ting, 1989: Examples of the horizontal propagation of quasi-stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 46 , 2802–2811.
Kiladis, G. N., , and H. F. Diaz, 1989: Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2 , 1069–1090.
Kousky, V. E., , M. T. Kayano, , and I. F. A. Cavalcanti, 1984: The Southern Oscillation: Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies. Tellus, 36A , 490–504.
Kunkel, K. E., , K. Andsager, , and D. R. Easterling, 1999: Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and Canada. J. Climate, 12 , 2515–2527.
Latif, M., , and T. P. Barnett, 1994: Causes of decadal climate variability over the north Pacific and North America. Science, 266 , 634–637.
Livezey, R. E., 1995: Field intercomparison. An Analysis of Climate Variability Applications of Statistical Techniques, H. Von Storch and A. Navarra, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 159–176.
Mantua, N. J., , S. R. Hare, , Y. Zhang, , J. M. Wallace, , and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 1069–1079.
National Climatic Data Center, 2002a: Data documentation for data set 6430: USDA/NRCS SNOTEL—Daily data. Text Report, DSI-6430, 11 pp.
National Climatic Data Center, 2002b: Data documentation for data set 6410: River Forecast Center Network. Text Report, DSI-6410, 5 pp.
Nita, T., , and S. Yamada, 1989: Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 67 , 375–383.
Rasmusson, E. M., , and T. H. Carpenter, 1983: The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111 , 517–528.
Rasmusson, E. M., , and K. Mo, 1993: Linkages between 200-mb tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies during the 1986–1989 ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 6 , 595–616.
Ropelewski, C. F., , and M. S. Halpert, 1986: North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon. Wea. Rev., 114 , 2352–2362.
Ropelewski, C. F., , and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 1606–1626.
Simmons, A. J., , J. M. Wallace, , and G. W. Branstator, 1983: Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 40 , 1363–1392.
Smith, T. M., , and R. W. Reynolds, 2003: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854–1997). J. Climate, 16 , 1495–1510.
Thompson, D. W. J., , and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 , 1297–1300.
Thompson, D. W. J., , and J. M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Climate, 13 , 1000–1016.
Thompson, D. W. J., , and J. M. Wallace, 2001: Regional climate impacts of the northern hemisphere annular mode. Science, 293 , 85–89.
Thompson, D. W. J., , J. M. Wallace, , and G. C. Hegerl, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J. Climate, 13 , 1018–1036.
Trenberth, K. E., 1990: Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71 , 988–993.
Wallace, J. M., 2000: North Atlantic Oscillation/Northern Hemisphere annular mode: Two paradigms—one phenomenon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126 , 791–806.