S. J. Camargo would like to thank Anthony G. Barnston, Michael K. Tippett, and Lisa Goddard for suggestions on statistical significance of the composites and Adam H. Sobel for valuable discussions. This work was support in part by NOAA through a block grant to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (S. J. Camargo and A. W. Robertson), Department of Energy Grant DE-FG02ER6413 (M. Ghil and A. W. Robertson), and the National Science Foundation under Grants SCI-0225642 and IIS-0431085 (S. J. Gaffney and P. Smyth). MG also wishes to acknowledge the European Commission’s Project No. 12975 (NEST), “Extreme Events: Causes and Consequences (E2-C2).”
Atkinson, G., 1977: Proposed system for near real time monitoring of global tropical circulation and weather patterns. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 645–652.
Barnston, A. G., , M. Chelliah, , and S. B. Goldenberg, 1997: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial Pacific. Atmos.–Ocean, 35 , 367–383.
Brand, S., 1971: The effects on a tropical cyclone of cooler surface waters due to upwelling and mixing produced by a prior tropical cyclone. J. Appl. Meteor., 10 , 865–874.
Briegel, L. M., , and W. M. Frank, 1997: Large-scale influences on tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125 , 1397–1413.
Camargo, S. J., , A. W. Robertson, , S. J. Gaffney, , P. Smyth, , and M. Ghil, 2007: Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part I: General properties. J. Climate, 20 , 3635–3653.
Carr III, L. E., , and R. L. Elsberry, 1990: Observational evidence for predictions of tropical cyclone propagation relative to steering. J. Atmos. Sci., 47 , 542–546.
Carr III, L. E., , and R. L. Elsberry, 1995: Monsoonal interactions leading to sudden tropical cyclone track changes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123 , 265–289.
Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113 , 599–606.
Chan, J. C. L., 1994: Prediction of the interannual variations of tropical cyclone movement over regions of the western North Pacific. Int. J. Climatol., 14 , 527–538.
Chan, J. C. L., 1995: Prediction of annual tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Int. J. Climatol., 15 , 1011–1019.
Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13 , 2960–2972.
Chan, J. C. L., , and W. M. Gray, 1982: Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationships. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110 , 1354–1374.
Chan, J. C. L., , and J-E. Shi, 2000: Frequency of typhoon landfall over Guandong province of China during the period 1470–1931. Int. J. Climatol., 20 , 183–190.
Chan, J. C. L., , and K. S. Liu, 2004: Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective. J. Climate, 17 , 4590–4602.
Chen, T-C., , S-P. Weng, , N. Yamazaki, , and S. Kiehne, 1998: Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126 , 1080–1090.
Chen, T-C., , S-Y. Wang, , M-C. Yen, , and W. A. G. Jr, 2004: Role of the monsoon gyre in the interannual variation of the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 19 , 776–785.
Chia, H. H., , and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15 , 2934–2944.
Chu, P-S., 2002: Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate, 15 , 2678–2689.
Chu, P-S., , and J. Wang, 1997: Tropical cyclone occurrences in the vicinity of Hawaii: Are the differences between El Niño and non–El Niño years significant? J. Climate, 10 , 2683–2689.
Clark, J. D., , and P-S. Chu, 2002: Interannual variation of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80 , 403–418.
CPC, cited. 2007: Monthly atmospheric and SST indices. [Available online at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/data/indices/.].
Dickinson, M., , and J. Molinari, 2002: Mixed Rossby–gravity waves and western Pacific tropical cyclogenesis. Part I: Synoptic evolution. J. Atmos. Sci., 59 , 2183–2196.
Ferreira, R. N., , and W. H. Schubert, 1999: The role of tropical cyclones in the formation of tropical upper-tropospheric troughs. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 , 2891–2907.
Fiorino, M. J., , and R. L. Elsberry, 1989: The role of vortex structure in tropical cyclone motion. J. Atmos. Sci., 46 , 975–990.
Franklin, J. L., , S. E. Feuer, , J. Kaplan, , and S. D. Aberson, 1996: Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding flow relationships: Searching for beta gyres in omega dropwindsond datasets. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124 , 64–84.
Gaffney, S. J., 2004: Probabilistic curve-aligned clustering and prediction with regression mixture models. Ph.D. thesis, University of California, Irvine, 281 pp. [Available online at http://ftp.ics.uci.edu/pub/sgaffney/outgoing/sgaffney_thesis.pdf.].
Gaffney, S. J., , A. W. Robertson, , P. Smyth, , S. J. Camargo, , and M. Ghil, 2007: Probabilistic clustering of extratropical cyclones using regression mixture models. Climate Dyn., in press.
Ghil, M., , and K-C. Mo, 1991: Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. Part I: Northern Hemisphere and tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 48 , 752–779.
Harr, P. A., , and R. L. Elsberry, 1991: Tropical cyclone track characteristics as a function of large-scale circulation anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119 , 1448–1468.
Harr, P. A., , and R. L. Elsberry, 1995a: Large-scale circulation variability over the tropical western North Pacific. Part I: Spatial patterns and tropical cyclone characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123 , 1225–1246.
Harr, P. A., , and R. L. Elsberry, 1995b: Large-scale circulation variability over the tropical western North Pacific. Part II: Persistence and transition characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123 , 1247–1268.
Ho, C-H., , J-J. Baik, , J-H. Kim, , and D-Y. Gong, 2004: Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J. Climate, 17 , 1767–1776.
Ide, K., , and M. Ghil, 1997a: Extended Kalman filtering for vortex systems. Part I: Methodology and point vortices. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 27 , 301–332.
Ide, K., , and M. Ghil, 1997b: Extended Kalman filtering for vortex systems. Part II: Rankine vortices and observing-system design. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 27 , 333–350.
Itoh, H., , and M. Ghil, 1988: The generation mechanism of mixed Rossby–gravity waves in the equatorial troposphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 45 , 585–604.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center, cited. 2007: JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) best track dataset. [Available online at https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/best-tracks/.].
Kemball-Cook, S., , and B. Wang, 2001: Equatorial waves and air–sea interaction in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 14 , 2923–2942.
Knutson, T. R., , and R. E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J. Climate, 17 , 3477–3495.
Kumar, V., , and R. Krishnan, 2005: On the association between the Indian summer monsoon and the tropical cyclone activity over northwest Pacific. Curr. Sci., 88 , 602–612.
Kuo, H-C., , J-H. Chen, , R. T. Williams, , and C-P. Chang, 2001: Rossby waves in zonally opposing mean flow: Behavior in the Northwest Pacific summer monsoon. J. Atmos. Sci., 58 , 1035–1050.
Lander, M. A., 1994a: An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122 , 636–651.
Lander, M. A., 1994b: Description of a monsoon gyre and its effects on the tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during August 1991. Wea. Forecasting, 9 , 640–654.
Lander, M. A., 1996: Specific tropical cyclone tracks and unusual tropical cyclone motions associated with a reverse-oriented monsoon trough in the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 11 , 170–186.
Lau, K-H., , and N-C. Lau, 1990: Observed structure and propagation characteristics of tropical summertime synoptic scale disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118 , 1888–1913.
Li, T., , B. Fu, , X. Ge, , B. Wang, , and M. Peng, 2003: Satellite data analysis and numerical simulation of tropical cyclone formation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 .2122, doi:10.1029/2003GL018556.
Liebmann, B., , and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77 , 1275–1277.
Liebmann, B., , H. H. Hendon, , and J. D. Glick, 1994: The relationship between tropical cyclones of the western Pacific and Indian oceans and the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 72 , 401–411.
Lin, I-I., , W. T. Liu, , C-C. Wu, , J. C. H. Chiang, , and C-H. Sui, 2003: Satellite observations of modulation of surface winds by typhoon-induced upper ocean cooling. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 .1131, doi:10.1029/2002GL015674.
Liu, K. S., , and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: Synoptic flow patterns associated with small and large tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130 , 2134–2142.
Madden, R. A., , and P. R. Julian, 1972: Description of global circulation cells in the Tropics with a 40–45 day period. J. Atmos. Sci., 29 , 1109–1123.
Mason, S. J., , and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 619–638.
Pan, Y. H., 1982: The effect of the thermal state of equatorial eastern Pacific on the frequency of typhoon over the western Pacific (in Chinese with English abstract). Acta Meteor. Sin., 40 , 24–34.
Pielke Jr., R. A., , C. Landsea, , M. Mayfield, , J. Laver, , and R. Pasch, 2005: Hurricanes and global warming. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86 , 1571–1575.
Rasmusson, E. M., , and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110 , 354–384.
Reed, R. J., , and E. E. Recker, 1971: Structure and properties of synoptic-scale wave disturbances in the equatorial western Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28 , 1117–1133.
Reynolds, R. W., , N. A. Rayner, , T. M. Smith, , D. C. Stokes, , and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15 , 1609–1625.
Ritchie, E. R., , and G. J. Holland, 1999: Large-scale patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the western Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127 , 2027–2043.
Ropelewski, C. F., , and M. S. Halpern, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 1606–1626.
Rui, H., , and B. Wang, 1990: Development characteristics and dynamic structure of the tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 47 , 357–379.
Sadler, J. C., 1978: Mid-season typhoon development and intensity changes and the tropical upper tropospheric trough. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106 , 1137–1152.
Saffir, H. S., 1977: Design and construction requirements for hurricane resistant construction. ASCE Tech. Rep. Preprint 2830, 20 pp. [Available from American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, NY 10017.].
Saunders, M. A., , R. E. Chandler, , C. J. Merchant, , and F. P. Roberts, 2000: Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27 , 1147–1150.
Sobel, A. H., , and C. S. Bretherton, 1999: Development of synoptic-scale disturbances over summertime tropical northwest Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 , 3106–3127.
Sobel, A. H., , and E. D. Maloney, 2000: Effect of ENSO and MJO on the western North Pacific tropical cyclones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27 , 1739–1742.
Sobel, A. H., , and S. J. Camargo, 2005: Influence of western North Pacific tropical cyclones on their environment. J. Atmos. Sci., 62 , 3396–3407.
von Helmholtz, H. L. F., 1867: On the integrals of the hydrodynamical equations which express vortex motions. Philos. Mag., 33 , 485–512.
Wang, B., , and H. Rui, 1990: Synoptic climatology of transient tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies: 1975–1985. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 44 , 43–61.
Wang, B., , and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 15 , 1643–1658.
Wang, Y., , and G. J. Holland, 1996: The beta drift of baroclinic vortices. Part II: Diabatic vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 53 , 3313–3332.
Webster, P. J., , G. J. Holland, , J. A. Curry, , and H-R. Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309 , 1844–1846.
Wheeler, M. C., , and G. N. Kiladis, 1999: Convectively coupled equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wavenumber–frequency domain. J. Atmos. Sci., 56 , 374–399.
Wheeler, M. C., , and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132 , 1917–1932.
Wu, C-C., , and K. A. Emanuel, 1995: Potential vorticity diagnostics of hurricane movement. Part I: A case study of Hurricane Bob (1991). Mon. Wea. Rev., 123 , 69–92.
Wu, M. C., , W. L. Chang, , and W. M. Leung, 2004: Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on tropical cyclone landfalling activity in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 17 , 1419–1428.