We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. We are thankful to three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and constructive recommendations.
Cubasch, U., and Coauthors, 2001: Projections of future climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 525–582.
Delworth, T. L., and Coauthors, 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Climate, 19 , 643–674.
Diansky, N. A., , and E. M. Volodin, 2002: Simulation of present-day climate with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Izv. Atmos. Oceanic Phys., 38 , 732–747.
Dupuis, D. J., , and M. Tsao, 1998: A hybrid estimator for the Generalized Pareto and Extreme-Value Distributions. Comm. Stat. Theory Methods, 27 , 925–941.
Emori, S., , and S. J. Brown, 2005: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L17706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023272.
Frich, P., , L. V. Alexander, , P. Della-Marta, , B. Gleason, , M. Haylock, , A. M. G. Klein Tank, , and T. Peterson, 2002: Observed coherent changes in climate extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Res., 19 , 193–212.
Gibson, J. K., , P. Kalberg, , S. Uppala, , A. Hernandes, , A. Nomura, , and E. Serrano, 1997: ERA Description. ECMWF Reanalysis Report Series 1, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 72 pp.
Gnanadesikan, A., and Coauthors, 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part II: The baseline ocean simulation. J. Climate, 19 , 675–697.
Gregory, J. M., , and J. F. B. Mitchell, 1995: Simulation of daily variability of surface temperature and precipitation over Europe in the current and 2xCO2 climate using the UKMO high-resolution climate model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121 , 1451–1476.
Hasumi, H., , and S. Emori, 2004: K-1 coupled model (MIROC) description. K-1 Tech. Rep. 1, Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, 34 pp.
Hosking, J. R. M., 1990: L-moments: Analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. (Ser. A), B52 , 105–124.
Hosking, J. R. M., 1992: Moments or L-moments? An example comparing the two measures of distributional shape. Amer. Stat., 46 , 186–189.
Hosking, J. R. M., , J. R. Wallis, , and E. F. Wood, 1985: Estimation of the generalized extreme-value distribution by the method of probability-weighted moments. Technometrics, 27 , 251–261.
International Ad Hoc Detection and Attribution Group, 2005: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances. J. Climate, 18 , 1291–1314.
Jenkinson, A. F., 1955: The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) values of meteorological elements. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 158–171.
Jungclaus, J. H., and Coauthors, 2006: Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J. Climate, 19 , 3952–3972.
Kanamitsu, M., , W. Ebisuzaki, , J. Woollen, , S-K. Yang, , J. J. Hnilo, , M. Fiorino, , and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 1631–1643.
Kharin, V. V., , and F. W. Zwiers, 2000: Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM. J. Climate, 13 , 3760–3788.
Kharin, V. V., , F. W. Zwiers, , and X. Zhang, 2005: Intercomparison of near surface temperature and precipitation extremes in AMIP-2 simulations, reanalyses, and observations. J. Climate, 18 , 5201–5223.
Martins, E. S., , and J. R. Stedinger, 2000: Generalized maximum-likelihood generalized extreme-value quantile estimators for hydrological data. Water Resour. Res., 36 , 737–744.
Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2006: Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Climate, 19 , 2597–2616.
Min, S-K., , S. Legutke, , A. Hense, , and W-T. Kwon, 2005: Internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G. Part I: Near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure. Tellus, 57A , 605–621.
Palutikof, J. P., , B. B. Brabson, , D. H. Lister, , and S. T. Adcock, 1999: A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds. Meteor. Appl., 6 , 119–132.
Ramanathan, V., , P. J. Crutzen, , J. T. Kiehl, , and D. Rosenfeld, 2001: Atmosphere—Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle. Science, 294 , 2119–2124.
Russell, G. L., , J. R. Miller, , and D. Rind, 1995: A coupled atmosphere–ocean model for transient climate change studies. Atmos.–Ocean, 33 , 683–730.
Russell, G. L., , J. R. Miller, , D. Rind, , R. A. Ruedy, , G. A. Schmidt, , and S. Sheth, 2000: Comparison of model and observed regional temperature changes during the past 40 years. J. Geophys. Res., 105 , 14891–14898.
Schmidt, G. A., and Coauthors, 2006: Present-day atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in situ, satellite, and reanalysis data. J. Climate, 19 , 153–192.
Semenov, V. A., , and L. Bengtsson, 2002: Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: Greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM. Climate Dyn., 19 , 123–140.
Simmons, A. J., , and J. K. Gibson, 2000: The ERA-40 project plan. ECMWF ERA-40 Project Report Series 1, 63 pp.
Stephens, M. A., 1970: Use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramer-von-Mises and related statistics without extensive tables. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. (Ser. A), 32B , 115–122.
Tebaldi, C., , K. Hayhoe, , J. M. Arblaster, , and G. A. Meehl, 2006: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change, 79 , 185–211.
Trenberth, K. E., , A. Dai, , R. M. Rasmussen, , and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84 , 1205–1217.
Voss, R., , W. May, , and E. Roeckner, 2002: Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change: Changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle. Int. J. Climatol., 22 , 755–777.
Washington, W. M., and Coauthors, 2000: Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dyn., 16 , 755–774.
Wehner, M. F., 2004: Predicted twenty-first-century changes in seasonal extreme precipitation events in the Parallel Climate Model. J. Climate, 17 , 4281–4290.
Wilby, R. L., , and T. M. L. Wigley, 2002: Future changes in the distribution of daily precipitation totals across North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 .1135, doi:10.1029/2001GL013048.
Xie, P., , J. E. Janowiak, , P. A. Arkin, , R. Adler, , A. Gruber, , R. Ferraro, , G. J. Huffman, , and S. Curtis, 2003: GPR pentad precipitation analyses: An experimental dataset based on gauge observations and satellite estimates. J. Climate, 16 , 2197–2214.
Yukimoto, S., and Coauthors, 2001: The new Meteorological Research Institute coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2)—Model climate and variability. Pap. Meteor. Geophys., 51 , 47–88.
Yukimoto, S., , A. Noda, , T. Uchiyama, , and S. Kusunoki, 2006: Climate change of the twentieth through twenty-first centuries simulated by the MRI-CGCM2.3. Pap. Meteor. Geophys., 56 , 9–24.
Zhang, X., , F. W. Zwiers, , and G. Li, 2004: Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values. J. Climate, 17 , 1945–1952.
Zwiers, F. W., , and V. V. Kharin, 1998: Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2 doubling. J. Climate, 11 , 2200–2222.