We gratefully acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. We also greatly appreciate that M. D. Oyama and C. A. Nobre at CPTEC made their PVM available for this application. Financial support from NASA Award NNG05GR52G made this work possible.
Betts, A. K., , and W. Ridgway, 1989: Climatic equilibrium of the atmospheric convective boundary layer over a tropical ocean. J. Atmos. Sci., 46 , 2621–2641.
Bonan, G. B., , and S. Levis, 2006: Evaluating aspects of the Community Land and Atmosphere Models (CLM3 and CAM3) using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. J. Climate, 19 , 2290–2301.
Chen, F., , and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land surface–hydrology model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: Model implementation and sensitivity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129 , 569–585.
Chen, J., , B. E. Carlson, , and A. D. Del Genio, 2002: Evidence for strengthening of the tropical general circulation in the 1990s. Science, 295 , 838–841.
Cook, K. H., , and E. K. Vizy, 2006: South American climate during the Last Glacial Maximum: Delayed onset of the South American monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., 111D .D02110, doi:10.1029/2005JD005980.
Coppola, E., , and F. Giorgi, 2005: Climate change in tropical regions from high-resolution time-slice AGCM experiments. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131 , 3123–3145.
Costa, M. H., , and J. A. Foley, 2000: Combined effects of deforestation and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations on the climate of Amazonia. J. Climate, 13 , 18–34.
Cox, P. M., , R. A. Betts, , M. Collins, , P. P. Harris, , C. Huntingford, , and C. D. Jones, 2004: Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78 , 137–156.
Dudhia, J., 1989: Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci., 46 , 3077–3107.
Feddema, J. J., , K. W. Oleson, , G. B. Bonan, , L. O. Mearns, , L. E. Buja, , G. A. Meehl, , and W. M. Washington, 2005: The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science, 310 , 1674–1678.
Giorgi, F., and Coauthors, 2001: Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 3317–3320.
Grell, G. A., , J. Dudhia, , and D. R. Stauffer, 1994: A description of the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, 121 pp.
Hong, S-Y., , and H-L. Pan, 1996: Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124 , 2322–2339.
Kain, J. S., , and J. M. Fritsch, 1993: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain–Fritsch scheme. The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteor. Monogr., No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 165–170.
Lenters, J. D., , and K. H. Cook, 1995: Simulation and diagnosis of the regional summertime precipitation climatology of South America. J. Climate, 8 , 2988–3005.
Li, W., , R. Fu, , and R. E. Dickinson, 2006: Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4. J. Geophys. Res., 111 .D02111, doi:10.1029/2005JD006355.
Malhi, Y., , and J. Wright, 2004: Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, B359 , 311–329.
Mitas, C. M., , and A. Clement, 2005: Has the Hadley cell been strengthening in recent decades. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32 .L030809, doi:10.1029/2004GL021765.
New, M., , D. Lister, , M. Hulme, , and I. Makin, 2002: A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Climate Res., 21 , 1–25.
Oyama, M. D., , and C. A. Nobre, 2004: A simple potential vegetation model for coupling with the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB). Braz. J. Meteor., 19 , 203–216.
Prentice, I. C., , W. Cramer, , S. P. Harrison, , R. Leemans, , R. A. Monserud, , and A. M. Solomon, 1992: A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties, and climate. J. Biogeogr., 19 , 117–134.
Rojas, M., , A. Seth, , and S. A. Rauscher, 2006: Relationship between precipitation and moisture flux changes in the SRES A2 scenario for the South American monsoon region. CLARIS News, 3 , 14–20.
Scholze, M., , W. Knorr, , N. W. Arnell, , and I. C. Prentice, 2006: A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 103 , 13116–13120.
Shea, D. K., , K. E. Trenberth, , and R. W. Reynolds, 1992: A global monthly sea surface temperature climatology. J. Climate, 5 , 987–1001.
Tanaka, H. L., , N. Ishizaki, , and A. Kitoh, 2004: Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon, and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere. Tellus, 56A , 250–269.
Vecchi, G. A., , B. J. Soden, , A. T. Wittenberg, , I. M. Held, , A. Leetmaa, , and M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441 , 73–76.
Vera, C., , G. Silvestri, , B. Liebmann, , and P. González, 2006: Climate change scenarios for seasonal precipitation in South America from IPCC-AR4 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 .L13707, doi:10.1029/2006GL025759.
Vizy, E. K., , and K. H. Cook, 2005: Evaluation of Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperature reconstructions through their influence on South American climate. J. Geophys. Res., 110 .D11105, doi:10.1029/2004JD005415.
Vizy, E. K., , and K. H. Cook, 2007: Relationship between Amazon and high Andes rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 112 .D07107, doi:10.1029/2006JD007980.
Xie, P., , and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78 , 2539–2558.
Xue, Y., , F. de Sales, , W-P. Li, , C. R. Mechoso, , C. A. Nobre, , and H-M. Juang, 2006: Role of land surface processes in South American monsoon development. J. Climate, 19 , 741–762.
Zhang, M., , and H. Song, 2006: Evidence of deceleration of atmospheric vertical overturning circulation over the tropical Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 .L12701, doi:10.1029/2006GL025942.