CM thanks Mark Baldwin for providing his EOF code and both Mark and Andrew Charlton-Perez for helpful discussions. The authors thank Thomas Reichler and Dave Thompson for their constructive reviews. This work was supported by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences through the C-SPARC project.
Baldwin, M. P., , and D. W. J. Thompson, 2009: A critical comparison of stratosphere–troposphere coupling indices. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135 .doi:10.1002/qj.479.
Beagley, S. R., , J. de Grandpré, , J. N. Koshyk, , N. A. McFarlane, , and T. G. Shepherd, 1997: Radiative–dynamical climatology of the first–generation Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Atmos.–Ocean, 35 , 293–331.
Butchart, N., , J. Austin, , J. R. Knight, , A. A. Scaife, , and M. L. Gallani, 2000: The response of the stratospheric climate to projected changes in the concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1992 to 2051. J. Climate, 13 , 2142–2159.
Butchart, N., and Coauthors, 2006: Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Climate Dyn., 27 , 727–741. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4.
Charlton, A. J., , and L. M. Polvani, 2007: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks. J. Climate, 20 , 449–469.
Charlton, A. J., and Coauthors, 2007: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part II: Evaluation of numerical model simulations. J. Climate, 20 , 470–488.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., , L. M. Polvani, , J. Austin, , and F. Li, 2008: The frequency and dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res., 113 , D16116. doi:10.1029/2007JD009571.
de Grandpré, J., , S. R. Beagley, , V. I. Fomichev, , E. Griffioen, , J. C. McConnell, , A. S. Medvedev, , and T. G. Shepherd, 2000: Ozone climatology using interactive chemistry: Results from the Canadian middle atmosphere model. J. Geophys. Res., 105 , 26475–26491.
Eyring, V., , D. E. Kinnison, , and T. G. Shepherd, 2005: Overview of planned coupled chemistry-climate simulations to support upcoming ozone and climate assessments. SPARC Newsletter, No. 25, WCRP SPARC, 11–17.
Eyring, V., and Coauthors, 2006: Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past. J. Geophys. Res., 111 , D22308. doi:10.1029/2006JD007327.
Eyring, V., and Coauthors, 2007: Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res., 112 , D16303. doi:10.1029/2006JD008332.
Hitchcock, P., , T. G. Shepherd, , and C. McLandress, 2009: Past and future conditions for polar stratospheric cloud formation simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9 , 483–495.
Limpasuvan, V., , D. W. J. Thompson, , and D. L. Hartmann, 2004: The life cycle of the Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings. J. Climate, 17 , 2584–2596.
McLandress, C., , and T. G. Shepherd, 2009: Simulated anthropogenic changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation, including its extension to high latitudes. J. Climate, 22 , 1516–1540.
Scinocca, J. F., , N. A. McFarlane, , M. Lazare, , J. Li, , and D. Plummer, 2008: The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8 , 7055–7074.
Taguchi, M., , and D. L. Hartmann, 2006: Increased occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings during El Niño as simulated by WACCM. J. Climate, 19 , 324–332.
Waugh, D. W., , and V. Eyring, 2008: Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8 , 5699–5713.