This work was carried out as a part of a U.S. CLIVAR drought working group activity supported by NASA, NOAA, and NSF to coordinate and compare climate model simulations forced with a common set of idealized SST patterns. The authors thank NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) for making the NSIPP1 runs available, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University for making their CCM3 runs available, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Climate Test Bed (CTB) for making the GFS runs available, NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for making the AM2.1 runs available, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for making the CAM3.5 runs available, and the Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere (COLA) and the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science for making the CCSM3.0 coupled model runs available. We wish to thank Dr. Dennis Lettenmainer for providing us the VIC data. This project is supported by the CPPA Grant GC06-012.
Andreadis, K. M., E. A. Clark, A. W. Wood, A. F. Hamlet, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States. J. Hydrometeor., 6 , 985–1001.
Bacmeister, J., P. J. Pegion, S. D. Schubert, and M. J. Suarez, 2000: An Atlas of Seasonal Means Simulated by the NSIPP 1 Atmospheric GCM. Vol. 17, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Tech. Memo. 104606, 194 pp.
Barlow, M., S. Nigam, and E. H. Berbery, 2001: ENSO, Pacific decadal variability, and the U.S. summertime precipitation, drought, and streamflow. J. Climate, 14 , 2105–2128.
Campana, K., and P. Caplan, Eds.,. 2005: Technical procedure bulletin for T382 Global Forecast System. NOAA/NCEP/EMC. [Available online at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/Documentation/TPBoct05/T382.TPB.FINAL.htm].
Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. R. Karl, 1998: Global variations in droughts and wet spells 1900-1995. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 , 3367–3370.
Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth, and T. Quin, 2004: A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeor., 5 , 1117–1130.
Delworth, T. L., and Coauthors, 2006: GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Climate, 19 , 643–674.
Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nunez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flow over the U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 , 2077–2080.
Goodrich, G. B., 2007: Influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation on winter precipitation and drought during years of neutral ENSO in the western United States. Wea. Forecasting, 22 , 116–124.
Hayes, M. J., M. D. Svoboda, D. A. Wilhite, and O. V. Vanyarkho, 1999: Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80 , 429–438.
Hidalgo, H. G., and J. A. Dracup, 2003: ENSO and PDO effects on hydroclimate variations of the upper Colorado River basin. J. Hydrometeor., 4 , 5–23.
Higgins, R. W., W. Shi, E. Yarosh, and R. Joyce, 2000: Improved United States Precipitation Quality Control System and Analysis. NCEP/CPC Atlas No. 7, 40 pp.
Hu, Q., and S. Feng, 2008: Variation of the North American summer monsoon regimes and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillations. J. Climate, 21 , 2371–2383.
Keyantash, J., and J. A. Dracup, 2002: The quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83 , 1167–1180.
Kiehl, J. T., J. J. Hack, G. Bonan, B. A. Boville, D. Williamson, and P. Rasch, 1998: The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM3. J. Climate, 11 , 1131–1149.
Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2005: GLACE: The Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment. Part I: Overview. J. Hydrometeor., 7 , 590–610.
Kushnir, Y., W. A. Robinson, I. Blade, N. M. J. Hall, S. Peng, and R. Sutton, 2002: Atmospheric GCM response to extratropical SST anomalies: Synthesis and evaluation. J. Climate, 15 , 2233–2256.
Maurer, E. P., A. W. Wood, J. C. Adam, D. P. Lettenmaier, and B. Nijssen, 2002: A long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J. Climate, 15 , 3237–3251.
McCabe, G. J., M. A. Palecki, and J. L. Betancount, 2004: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multi-decadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101 , 4136–4141.
McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, 1993: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 179–184.
McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, 1995: Drought monitoring with multiple time scales. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 233–236.
Mestas-Nunez, A., and D. B. Enfield, 1999: Rotated global modes of non-ENSO sea surface temperature variability. J. Climate, 12 , 2734–2746.
Milly, P. C. D., and A. B. Shmakin, 2002: Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part I: The Land Dynamics (LaD) model. J. Hydrometeor., 3 , 283–299.
Mo, K. C., and E. H. Berbery, 2004: Low level jets and the summer precipitation regimes over North America. J. Geophys. Res., 109 , D06117. doi:10.1029/2003JD004106.
Mo, K. C., and J. E. Schemm, 2008a: Drought and persistent wet spells over the United States and Mexico. J. Climate, 21 , 980–994.
Mo, K. C., and J. E. Schemm, 2008b: Relationships between ENSO and drought over the southeastern United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 , L15701. doi:10.1029/2008GL034656.
Nunoz, E., A. Busalacchi, S. Nigam, and A. Ruiz-Barradas, 2008: Winter and summer structure of the Caribbean low-level jet. J. Climate, 21 , 1260–1276.
Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85 , 853–872.
Peng, S., A. Mysak, H. Ritchie, J. Derome, and B. Dugas, 1995: The difference between early and middle winter atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies in the northwest Atlantic. J. Climate, 8 , 137–157.
Peng, S., W. A. Robinson, and S. Li, 2002: North Atlantic SST forcing of the NAO and relationships with intrinsic hemispheric variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 , 1276. doi:10.1029/2001GL014043.
Rasmusson, E. M., and K. C. Mo, 1993: Linkages between 200-mb tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies during the 1986–1989 ENSO cycle. J. Climate, 6 , 595–616.
Rogers, J. C., and J. S. M. Coleman, 2003: Interactions between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, El Niño/La Niña, and the PNA in winter Mississippi Valley stream flow. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 , 1518. doi:10.1029/2003GL017216.
Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1986: North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114 , 2352–2362.
Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1989: Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2 , 268–284.
Rowell, D. P., 1998: Assessing potential seasonal variability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulation. J. Climate, 11 , 109–120.
Saravanan, R., and P. Chang, 2000: Interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 13 , 2177–2194.
Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2004: Causes of long-term drought in the U.S. Great Plains. J. Climate, 17 , 485–503.
Schubert, S. D., and Coauthors, 2009: A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results. J. Climate, 22 , 5251–5272.
Seager, R., 2007: The turn of the century North American drought: Global context, dynamics, and past analogs. J. Climate, 20 , 5527–5552.
Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, M. Visbeck, N. Naik, J. Miller, G. Krahmann, and H. Cullen, 2000: Cause of Atlantic Ocean climate variability between 1958 and 1998. J. Climate, 13 , 2845–2862.
Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, C. Herweijer, N. Naik, and J. Velez, 2005: Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856–2000. J. Climate, 18 , 4065–4088.
Shukla, S., and A. W. Wood, 2008: Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 , L02405. doi:10.1029/2007GL032487.
Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, R. E. Livezey, and D. C. Stokes, 1996: Reconstruction of historical sea surface temperatures using empirical orthogonal functions. J. Climate, 9 , 1403–1420.
Wang, A., T. J. Bohn, S. P. Mahanama, R. D. Koster, and D. P. Lettenmainer, 2009: Multimodel ensemble reconstruction of drought over the continental United States. J. Climate, 22 , 2694–2712.