This research has been funded by U.S. CLIVAR Drought in Coupled Models Project (DRICOMP). CASC was supported by Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP), Processes 2005/05210-7 and 2006/02497-6. LG was supported in part under Cooperative Agreement NA05OAR4311004 between Columbia University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. We thank the EU-funded DEMETER project for making their multimodel seasonal hindcasts available at the ECMWF public data server. We also acknowledge the IPCC modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.
AchutaRao, K., and K. R. Sperber, 2006: ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: Are the current models better? Climate Dyn., 27 , 1–15. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0119-7.
Barnston, A. G., M. Chelliah, and S. B. Goldenberg, 1997: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial Pacific. Atmos.–Ocean, 35 , 367–383.
Coelho, C. A. S., D. B. Stephenson, M. Balmaseda, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and G. J. van Oldenborgh, 2006: Towards an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America. J. Climate, 19 , 3704–3721.
Dilley, M., R. S. Chen, U. Deichmann, A. L. Lerner-Lam, and M. Arnold, 2005: Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. World Bank, 145 pp.
Easterling, D. R., T. W. R. Wallis, J. H. Lawrimore, and R. R. Heim Jr., 2007: Effects of temperature and precipitation trends on U.S. drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 , L20709. doi:10.1029/2007GL031541.
Knutson, T. R., S. Manabe, and D. Gu, 1997: Simulated ENSO in a global couple ocean–atmosphere model: Multidecadal amplitude modulation and CO2 sensitivity. J. Climate, 10 , 138–161.
Lyon, B., 2004: The strength of El Niño and the spatial extent of tropical drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31 , L21204. doi:10.1029/2004GL020901.
Mann, H. B., and D. R. Whitney, 1947: On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other. Ann. Math. Stat., 18 , 50–60.
Mason, S. J., and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82 , 619–638.
McCabe, G. J., and D. M. Wolock, 2007: Warming may create substantial water supply shortages in the Colorado River basin. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34 , L22708. doi:10.1029/2007GL031764.
Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 747–846.
Misra, V., L. Marx, M. Fennessey, B. Kirtman, and J. Kinter, 2008: A comparison of climate prediction and simulation over the tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 21 , 3601–3611.
Mitchell, T. D., and P. D. Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol., 25 , 693–712.
Neelin, J. D., C. Chou, and H. Su, 2003: Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Niño teleconnections. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 , L2275. doi:10.1029/2003GL018625.
Nicholls, N., 2008: Recent trends in the seasonal and temporal behaviour or the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 , L19703. doi:10.1029/2008GL034499.
Nohara, D., A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka, and T. Oki, 2006: Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble. J. Hydrometeor., 7 , 1076–1089.
Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85 , 853–872.
Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115 , 1606–1626.
Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, H. L. Miller Jr., and Z. Chen, Eds.,. 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
Sterl, A., G. J. van Oldenborgh, W. Hazeleger, and G. Burgers, 2007: On the robustness of ENSO teleconnections. Climate Dyn., 29 , 469–485.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., M. A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, T. N. Stockdale, and D. L. T. Anderson, 2005a: Evaluation of atmospheric fields from the ECMWF seasonal forecasts over a 15-year period. J. Climate, 18 , 3250–3269.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., S. Y. Phillip, and M. Collins, 2005b: El Niño in a changing climate: A multi-model study. Ocean Sci., 1 , 81–95.
Vecchi, G. A., A. Clement, and B. J. Soden, 2008: Examining the tropical Pacific’s response to global warming. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 89 , 81–83.
Wang, G., 2005: Agricultural drought in a future climate: Results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment. Climate Dyn., 25 , 739–753. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9.