The CSH dataset was provided by Drs. W.-K. Tao, W. Lau, J. Wu, and S. Lang. This study was supported by Grants NASA PMM-NNX07AD39G and NSF ATM-0419618. We wish to convey our thanks to Dr. W.-K. Tao for encouraging us to carry out this study. The reviewers’ comments greatly helped us in improving the manuscript.
Chakraborty, A., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2006: Improved seasonal climate forecasts of the South Asian summer monsoon using a suite of 13 coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134 , 1697–1721.
Chakraborty, A., T. N. Krishnamurti, and C. Gnanaseelan, 2007: Prediction of the diurnal cycle using a multimodel superensemble. Part II: Clouds. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135 , 4097–4116.
Johnson, R. H., and P. E. Ciesielski, 2002: Characteristics of the 1998 summer monsoon onset over the northern South China Sea. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80 , 561–578.
Krishnamurti, T. N., Y. Ramanathan, H. L. Pan, R. J. Pasch, and J. Molinary, 1980: Cumulus parameterization and rainfall rates I. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108 , 465–472.
Krishnamurti, T. N., H. Bedi, G. Rohaly, and D. Oosterhof, 1996: Partitioning of the seasonal simulation of a monsoon climate. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124 , 1499–1520.
Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, T. E. LaRow, D. R. Bachiochi, Z. Zhang, C. E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran, 1999: Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science, 285 , 1548–1550.
Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, Z. Zhang, T. E. LaRow, D. R. Bachiochi, C. E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran, 2000: Multimodel superensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Climate, 13 , 4196–4216.
Krishnamurti, T. N., A. Chakraborty, R. Krishnamurti, W. K. Dewar, and C. A. Clayson, 2006: Seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature anomalies using a suite of 13 coupled atmosphere–ocean models. J. Climate, 19 , 6069–6088.
Krishnamurti, T. N., C. Gnanaseelan, and A. Chakraborty, 2007: Prediction of the diurnal cycle using a multimodel superensemble. Part I: Precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135 , 3613–3632.
Krishnamurti, T. N., S. Basu, J. Sanjay, and C. Gnanaseelan, 2008a: Evaluation of several different planetary boundary layer schemes within a single model, a unified model and a multimodel superensemble. Tellus, 60A , 42–61.
Krishnamurti, T. N., C. Gnanaseelan, A. K. Mishra, and A. Chakraborty, 2008b: Improved forecasts of diurnal cycle in tropics using multiple global models. Part I: Precipitation. J. Climate, 21 , 4029–4043.
Krishnamurti, T. N., A. K. Mishra, A. Chakraborty, and M. Rajeevan, 2009: Improving global model precipitation forecasts over India using downscaling and FSU superensemble. Part I: 1–5-day forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137 , 2713–2735.
Lau, K. M., and Coauthors, 2000: A report of the field operations and early results of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81 , 1261–1270.
Mishra, A. K., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2007: Current status of multimodel superensemble and operational NWP forecast of the Indian summer monsoon. J. Earth Syst. Sci., 116 , 369–384.
Pan, H-L., and W. S. Wu, 1995: Implementing a mass flux convection parameterization package for the NMC medium range forecast model. NMC Office Note, Tech. Rep. 409, 40 pp.
Shige, S., Y. Takayabu, W. Tao, and D. Johnson, 2004: Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles from TRMM PR data. Part I: Development of a model-based algorithm. J. Appl. Meteor., 43 , 1095–1113.
Shige, S., Y. Takayabu, W. Tao, and C. Shie, 2007: Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles from TRMM PR data. Part II: Algorithm improvement and heating estimates over tropical ocean regions. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46 , 1098–1124.
Shige, S., Y. Takayabu, and W. Tao, 2008: Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles from TRMM PR data. Part III: Estimating apparent moisture sink profiles over tropical oceans. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47 , 620–640.
Slingo, J. M., and Coauthors, 1996: Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject. Climate Dyn., 12 , 325–357.
Stefanova, L., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2002: Interpretation of seasonal climate forecast using Brier skill score, FSU superensemble, and the AMIP-I data set. J. Climate, 15 , 537–544.
Tao, W-K., and Coauthors, 2006: Retrieval of latent heating from TRMM satellite measurements. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87 , 1555–1572.
Tao, W-K., J. R. A. Houze, and E. Smith, 2007: The fourth TRMM latent heating workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88 , 1255–1259.
Tiedtke, M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117 , 1779–1800.
Waliser, D. E., and Coauthors, 2003: AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dyn., 21 , 423–446.
Yanai, M., S. Esbensen, and J-H. Chu, 1973: Determination of bulk properties of tropical cloud clusters from large-scale heat and moisture budgets. J. Atmos. Sci., 30 , 611–627.
Yun, W-T., L. Stefanova, and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2003: Improvement of the multimodel superensemble technique for seasonal forecasts. J. Climate, 16 , 3834–3840.
Yuter, S., J. R. A. Houze, E. Smith, T. Wilheit, and E. Zipser, 2005: Physical characterization of tropical oceanic convection observed in KWAJEX. J. Appl. Meteor., 44 , 385–415.
Zhang, C., M. Dong, H. H. Hendon, E. D. Maloney, A. Marshall, K. R. Sperber, and W. Wang, 2006: Simulations of the Madden–Julian oscillation in four pairs of coupled and uncoupled global models. Climate Dyn., 27 , 573–592. doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0148-2.
Zhang, G. J., and N. A. McFarlane, 1995: Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model. Atmos.–Ocean, 33 , 407–446.