This research effort was supported by NOAA Grant NA08OAR4310592 and NSF Grant ATM-0621737. We wish to express our sincere thanks to the Computational Information and Systems Laboratory (CISL) at NCAR for providing the ECMWF’s ERA-40 global atmospheric reanalysis data.
Barlow, M., M. Wheeler, B. Lyon, and H. Cullen, 2005: Modulation of daily precipitation over Southwest Asia by the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 3579–3594.
Fasullo, J., and P. J. Webster, 2003: A hydrological definition of Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal. J. Climate, 16, 3200–3211.
Goswami, B. N., V. Krishnamurthy, and H. Annamalai, 1999: A broad-scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 611–633.
Goswami, B. N., V. Venugopal, D. Sengupta, M. S. Madhusoodanan, and P. K. Xavier, 2006: Increase trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science, 314, 1442–1445.
Hoskins, B. J., 1996: On the existence and strength of the summer subtropical anticyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1287–1291.
Hoskins, B. J., and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1179–1196.
Hoskins, B. J., and M. J. Rodwell, 1995: A model of the Asian summer monsoon. Part I: The global scale. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1329–1340.
Hsu, H. H., C. T. Terng, and C. T. Chen, 1999: Evolution of large-scale circulation and heating during the first transition of the Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 12, 793–810.
Kershaw, R., 1985: Onset of the southwest monsoon and sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arabian Sea. Nature, 315, 561–563.
Kripalani, R. H., A. Kulkarni, S. S. Sabade, and M. L. Khandekar, 2003: Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario. Nat. Hazards, 29, 189–206.
Meehl, G. A., and W. M. Washington, 1993: South Asian summer monsoon variability in a model with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Science, 260, 1101–1104.
Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 747–845.
Mohanty, U. C., S. K. Dube, and M. P. Singh, 1983: A study of heat and moisture budget over the Arabian Sea and their role in the onset and maintenance of summer monsoon. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 61, 208–221.
Rao, Y. P., 1976: Southwest Monsoon: Synoptic Meteorology. Meteor. Monogr., No. 1/1976, India Meteorological Department, 367 pp.
Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 877–926.
Webster, P. J., T. Palmer, M. Yanai, R. Tomas, V. Magana, J. Shukla, and A. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 451–14 510.
Yanai, M., and T. Tomita, 1998: Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. J. Climate, 11, 463–482.
Yatagai, A., O. Arakawa, K. Kamiguchi, H. Kawamoto, M. I. Nodzu, and A. Hamada, 2009: A 44-year daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. SOLA, 5, 137–140.