We would first like to acknowledge the dedicated effort of all the scientists and software engineers who contributed to the development of the CCSM4. We also thank three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments on an earlier version of this paper. This work was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA09OAR4310163, by the Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, U.S. Department of Energy, Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC02-97ER62402, and by the National Science Foundation through its sponsorship of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This research used computing resources provided by the NCAR Computational and Information Systems Laboratory and by the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.
Bates, S. C., B. Fox-Kemper, S. R. Jayne, W. G. Large, S. Stevenson, and S. G. Yeager, 2012: Mean biases, variability, and trends in air–sea fluxes and sea surface temperature in the CCSM4. J. Climate, in press.
CLIVAR, 2011: Data and bias correction for decadal climate predictions. CLIVAR Publ. Series 150, International CLIVAR Project Office, 4 pp.
Danabasoglu, G., S. Bates, B. Briegleb, S. Jayne, M. Jochum, W. Large, S. Peacock, and S. Yeager, 2012a: The CCSM4 ocean component. J. Climate, 25, 1361–1389.
Danabasoglu, G., S. G. Yeager, Y.-O. Kwon, J. Tribbia, A. Phillips, and J. Hurrell, 2012b: Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 2077–2103.
Dunstone, N. J., D. M. Smith, and R. Eade, 2011: Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14701, doi:10.1029/2011GL047949.
Eden, C., and J. Willebrand, 2001: Mechanism of interannual to decadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation. J. Climate, 14, 2266–2280.
Flatau, M. K., L. Talley, and P. P. Niiler, 2003: The North Atlantic oscillation, surface current velocities, and SST changes in the subpolar North Atlantic. J. Climate, 16, 2355–2369.
Hatun, H., and Coauthors, 2009: Large bio-geographical shifts in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales. Prog. Oceanogr., 80, 149–162.
Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1095–1107.
Holland, D. M., R. H. Thomas, B. de Young, M. H. Ribergaard, and B. Lyberth, 2008: Acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbrae triggered by warm subsurface waters. Nature, 1, 659–664.
Hurrell, J. W., 1995: Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269, 676–679.
Hurrell, J. W., J. J. Hack, D. Shea, J. M. Caron, and J. Rosinski, 2008: A new sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary dataset for the community atmosphere model. J. Climate, 21, 5145–5153.
Ishii, M., and M. Kimoto, 2009: Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections. J. Oceanogr., 65, 287–299.
Johns, W. E., and Coauthors, 2011: Continuous, array-based estimates of the Atlantic Ocean heat transport at 26.5°N. J. Climate, 24, 2429–2449.
Keenlyside, N., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornbleuh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453, 84–88.
Knight, J. R., C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife, 2006: Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.
Large, W. G., and S. G. Yeager, 2004: Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea ice models: The datasets and climatologies. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-460+STR, 105 pp.
Large, W. G., and S. G. Yeager, 2009: The global climatology of an interannually-varying air–sea flux data set. Climate Dyn., 33, 341–364.
Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, R. A. Locarnini, H. E. Garcia, and A. V. Mishonov, 2009: Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07608, doi:10.1029/2008GL037155.
Lohmann, K., H. Drange, and M. Bentsen, 2009a: A possible mechanism for the strong weakening of the north atlantic subpolar gyre in the mid-1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15602, doi:10.1029/2009GL039166.
Lohmann, K., H. Drange, and M. Bentsen, 2009b: Response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to persistent North Atlantic oscillation like forcing. Climate Dyn., 32, 273–285, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0467-6.
Lozier, M. S., S. Leadbetter, R. G. Williams, V. Roussenov, M. S. C. Reed, and N. J. Moore, 2008: The spatial pattern and mechanisms of heat-content change in the North Atlantic. Science, 319, 800–803, doi:10.1126/science.1146436.
Marshall, J., H. Johnson, and J. Goodman, 2001: A study of the interaction of the North Atlantic Oscillation with ocean circulation. J. Climate, 14, 1399–1421.
Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, J. M. Arblaster, A. Hu, H. Teng, C. Tebaldi, W. G. Strand, and J. B. White III, 2012: Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 3661–3683.
Pohlmann, H., J. H. Jungclaus, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, and J. Marotzke, 2009: Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 3926–3938.
Robson, J. I., 2010: Understanding the performance of a decadal prediction system. Ph.D. thesis, University of Reading, 233 pp.
Robson, J. I., R. Sutton, K. Lohmann, and D. Smith, 2012: Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s. J. Climate, 25, 4116–4134.
Schneider, T., and A. Neumaier, 2001: Algorithm 808: Arfit—A Matlab package for the estimation of parameters and eigenmodes of multivariate autoregressive models. ACM Trans. Math. Software, 27, 58–65.
Smith, D. M., and J. M. Murphy, 2007: An objective ocean temperature and salinity analysis using covariances from a global climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C02022, doi:10.1029/2005JC003172.
Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy, 2007: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796–799, doi:10.1126/science.1139540.
Smith, D. M., R. Eade, N. J. Dunstone, D. Fereday, J. M. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, and A. A. Scaife, 2010: Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nat. Geosci., 3, 846–849, doi:10.1038/NGEO1004.
Solomon, A., and Coauthors, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 141–156.
Sutton, R. T., and D. L. R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309, 115–118.
Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498.
Troccoli, A., and T. N. Palmer, 2007: Ensemble decadal predictions from analyzed initial conditions. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, A365, 2179–2191.
Zhang, R., and T. Delworth, 2006: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267.
Note that here the term sample refers to the collection of start dates that can be included for a given τ. Since there are 10 members per start date, multiply by 10 to get the total number of integrations included in the diτ computation.
All heat content anomalies are relative to a 1957–90 climatology that is computed separately for each individual dataset.
For the heat budget analysis, the climatological period is chosen to be 1961–2007 because this is the period used for defining diτ. With this choice, the climatological budget computed across the DP ensembles matches that computed from CORE-IA.