Helpful suggestions by several seminar audiences and three reviewers are gratefully acknowledged. This material is based on work supported by NASA Grant NNX06AD74G, Office of Science (BER), U. S. Department of Energy Grant DE-SC0000823, and National Science Foundation Grant 0731520. JTB acknowledges support from GMAO and NASA’s MAP program. The OLR image in Fig. 5a was provided by the NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado (from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd). Filtered OLR data were obtained through the courtesy of Dr. George Kiladis.
Andersson, E., and Coauthors, 2005: Assimilation and modeling of the atmospheric hydrological cycle in the ECMWF forecasting system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 387–402.
Bacmeister, J. T., M. J. Suarez, and F. R. Robertson, 2006: Rain reevaporation, boundary layer–convection interactions, and Pacific rainfall patterns in an AGCM. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 3383–3403.
Benedict, J. J., and D. A. Randall, 2007: Observed characteristics of the MJO relative to maximum rainfall. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2332–2354.
Bloom, S., L. Takacs, A. da Silva, and D. Ledvina, 1996: Data assimilation using incremental analysis updates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1256–1271.
Boyle, J., S. Klein, G. Zhang, S. Xie, and X. Wei, 2008: Climate model forecast experiments for TOGA COARE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 808–832.
Derbyshire, S. H., I. Beau, P. Bechtold, J.-Y. Grandpeix, J.-M. Piriou, J.-L. Redelsperger, and P. M. M. Soares, 2004: Sensitivity of moist convection to environmental humidity. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 3055–3079.
Hagos, S., and Coauthors, 2010: Estimates of tropical diabatic heating profiles: Commonalities and uncertainties. J. Climate, 23, 542–558.
Jeuken, A. B. M., P. C. Siegmung, L. C. Heijboer, J. Feichter, and L. Bengtsson, 1996: On the potential of assimilating meteorological analysis in a global climate model for the purpose of model validation. J. Geophys. Res., 101 (D12), 16 939–16 950.
Jung, T., 2011: Diagnosing remote origins of forecast error: Relaxation versus 4D-Var data-assimilation experiments. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 598–606, doi:10.1002/qj.781.
Katsumata, M., R. H. Johnson, and P. E. Ciesielski, 2009: Observed synoptic-scale variability during the developing phase of an ISO over the Indian Ocean during MISMO. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3434–3448.
Kikuchi, K., and Y. N. Takayabu, 2004: The development of organized convection associated with the MJO during TOGA COARE IOP: Trimodal characteristics. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L10101, doi:10.1029/2004GL019601.
Kiladis, G. N., K. H. Straub, and P. T. Haertel, 2005: Zonal and vertical structure of the Madden–Julian Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2790–2809.
Klinker, E., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1992: The diagnosis of mechanical dissipation in the atmosphere from large-scale balance requirements. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 608–627.
Lee, M. I., M. J. Suarez, I. S. Kang, I. M. Held, and D. Kim, 2008: A moist benchmark calculation for atmospheric general circulation models. J. Climate, 21, 4934–4954.
Ling, J., and C. Zhang, 2011: Structural evolution in heating profiles of the MJO in global reanalyses and TRMM retrievals. J. Climate, 24, 825–842.
Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1994: Observations of the 40–50-day tropical oscillation—A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 814–837.
Mapes, B. E., and R. A. Houze, 1995: Diabatic divergence profiles in western Pacific mesoscale convective systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1807–1828.
Mapes, B. E., J. Bacmeister, M. Khairoutdinov, C. Hannay, and M. Zhao, 2009: Virtual field campaigns on deep tropical convection in climate models. J. Climate, 22, 244–257.
Martin, G. M., S. F. Milton, C. A. Senior, M. E. Brooks, S. Ineson, T. Reichler, and J. Kim, 2010: Analysis and reduction of systematic errors through a seamless approach to modeling weather and climate. J. Climate, 23, 5933–5957.
Masunaga, H., 2009: A 9-season observation TRMM observation of the austral summer MJO and low-frequency equatorial waves. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87A, 295–315.
Masunaga, H., T. S. L’Ecuyer, and C. D. Kummerow, 2006: The Madden–Julian Oscillation recorded in early observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2777–2794.
Misra, V., S. Chan, R. Wu, and E. P. Chassignet, 2009: Air-sea interaction over the Atlantic warm pool in the NCEP CFS. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038737.
Moorthi, S., and M. J. Suarez, 1992: Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert: A parameterization of moist convection for general circulation models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 978–1002.
Morita, J., Y. N. Takayabu, S. Shige, and Y. Kodama, 2006: Analysis of rainfall characteristics of the Madden-Julian oscillation using TRMM satellite data. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 42, 107–126, doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2006.02.002.
Phillips, T. J., and Coauthors, 2004: Evaluating parameterizations in general circulation models: Climate simulation meets weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1903–1915.
Rienecker, M. M., and Coauthors, 2008: The GEOS-5 data assimilation system—Documentation of versions 5.0.1, 5.1.0, and 5.2.0. NASA GSFC Tech. Rep. Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, NASA/TM-2008-104606, Vol. 27, 118 pp. [Available online at http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/Rienecker369.pdf.]
Rienecker, M. M., and Coauthors, 2011: MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. J. Climate, 24, 3624–3648.
Riley, E. M., B. E. Mapes, and S. N. Tulich, 2011: Clouds associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation: A new perspective from CloudSat. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 3032–3051.
Robertson, F. R., and J. B. Roberts, 2012: Intraseasonal variability in MERRA energy fluxes over the tropical oceans. J. Climate, 25, 5629–5647.
Rodwell, M. J., and T. N. Palmer, 2007: Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 129–146, doi:10.1002/qj.23.
Rodwell, M. J., and T. Jung, 2008: Understanding the local and global impacts of model physics changes: An aerosol example. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1479–1497.
Song, S. and B. E. Mapes, 2012: Interpretations of systematic errors in the NOAA Climate Forecast System at lead times of 2, 4, 8, … , 256 days. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., in press.
Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917–1932.
Yasunaga, K., and B. E. Mapes, 2012: Differences between more divergent and more rotational types of convectively coupled equatorial waves. Part II: Composite analysis based on space–time filtering. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 17–34.
Zhang, G. J., and X. Song, 2009: Interaction of deep and shallow convection is key to Madden-Julian Oscillation simulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09708, doi:10.1029/2009GL037340.