This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under U.S. Department of Commerce Agreement EL133E07SE4607. This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation (SES-0345925) as well as the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management. We thank M. Haran, J. Fricks, and N. Urban for helpful feedback and discussion about the time series analysis and other aspects of spatial smoothing. The helpful comments and suggestions from three anonymous reviewers greatly improved this work. Any opinions and errors are those of the authors.
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