This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Abrupt Climate Change program, Grant DE-FG02-08ER64597. The authors also gratefully acknowledge additional financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and federal grants. Development of the IGSM applied in this research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science (DE-FG02-94ER61937), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPRI, and other U.S. government agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors. For a complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all. We also acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. The authors would also like to thank Henry Jacoby for his valuable discussions and editorial remarks in earlier versions of this manuscript.
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For these calculations, the averaging periods are 2000–10 and 2070–80.