This work was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Environment Canada and a Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory postdoc fellowship. Computing resources were provided by Environment Canada. We are grateful to Michael Sigmond for making his data for the BC simulation available, Slava Kharin for providing technical assistance in the setup of the bias correction, and Haibo Liu for aid in downloading/storage of CMIP5 data. We also thank John Fyfe, Charles McLandress, Richard Seager, and Bel-Helen Burgess for helpful comments/discussion and Walt Robinson, Dennis Hartmann, Ed Gerber, and an anonymous reviewer for helpful reviews.
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
Arakelian, A., , and F. Codron, 2012: Southern Hemisphere jet variability in the IPSL GCM at varying resolutions. J. Climate, 69, 3788–3799.
Baldwin, M. P., , D. B. Stephenson, , D. W. J. Thompson, , T. J. Dunkerton, , A. J. Charlton, , and A. O'Neill, 2003: Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science, 301, 636–640, doi:10.1126/science.1087143.
Baldwin, M. P., , D. B. Stephenson, , and I. T. Jolliffe, 2009: Spatial weighting and iterative projection methods for EOFs. J. Climate, 22, 234–243.
Barnes, E. A., , and D. L. Hartmann, 2010: Dynamical feedbacks of the southern annular mode in winter and summer. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2320–2330.
Barnes, E. A., , D. L. Hartmann, , D. M. W. Frierson, , and J. Kidston, 2010: Effect of latitude on the persistence of eddy-driven jets. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L11804, doi:10.1029/2010GL043199.
Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
Devore, J. L., 1999: Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences. 5th ed. Brooks/Cole, 535–536.
Ding, Q., , E. L. Steig, , D. S. Battisti, , and J. M. Wallace, 2012: Influence of the tropics on the southern annular mode. J. Climate, 25, 6330–6348.
Gerber, E. P., , L. M. Polvani, , and D. Ancukiewicz, 2008: Annular mode time scales in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22707, doi:10.1029/2008GL035712.
Gerber, E. P., and Coauthors, 2010: Stratosphere–troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry–climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M06, doi:10.1029/2009JD013770.
Kidston, J., , and E. P. Gerber, 2010: Intermodel variability of the poleward shift of the austral jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations linked to biases in 20th century climatology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L09708, doi:10.1029/2010GL042873.
Kidston, J., , D. M. W. Frierson, , J. A. Renwick, , and G. J. Vallis, 2010: Observations, simulations, and dynamics of jet stream variability and annular modes. J. Climate, 23, 6186–6199.
Kuroda, Y., , and H. Mukougawa, 2011: Role of medium-scale waves on the southern annular mode. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D22107, doi:10.1029/2011JD016293.
L'Heureux, L. M., , and D. W. J. Thompson, 2006: Observed relationships between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the extratropical zonal-mean circulation. J. Climate, 19, 276–287.
Lorenz, D. J., , and D. L. Hartmann, 2003: Eddy–zonal flow feedback in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Climate, 16, 1212–1227.
McLandress, C., , T. G. Shepherd, , J. F. Scinocca, , D. A. Plummer, , M. Sigmond, , A. I. Jonsson, , and M. C. Reader, 2011: Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere troposphere. J. Climate, 24, 1850–1868.
Scinocca, J. F., , N. A. McFarlane, , M. Lazare, , J. Li, , and D. Plummer, 2008: Technical note: The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7055–7074.
Shepherd, T. G., 1987b: A spectral view of nonlinear fluxes and stationary-transient interaction in the atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1168–1178.
Simpson, I. R., , P. Hitchcock, , T. G. Shepherd, , and J. F. Scinocca, 2011: Stratospheric variability and tropospheric annular mode timescales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L20806, doi:10.1029/2011GL049304.
Simpson, I. R., , M. Blackburn, , and J. D. Haigh, 2012: A mechanism for the effect of tropospheric jet structure on the annular mode–like response to stratospheric forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2152–2170.
Simpson, I. R., , P. Hitchcock, , T. G. Shepherd, , and J. F. Scinocca, 2013: Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models. Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM. J. Climate, 26, 3953–3967.
Son, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The impact of stratospheric ozone on the Southern Hemisphere circulation changes: A multimodel assessment. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M07, doi:10.1029/2010JD014271.
Thompson, D. W. J., , and J. M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Climate, 13, 1000–1016.