We thank Andrew Dowdy and Xingbao Wang for their valuable insight. We acknowledge the Pacific Climate Change and Science Program (PCCSP) project for supporting this work. PCCSP is funded by AusAID, in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).
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Here the GCM modeled error refers to the GCM TC climatology error (i.e., too many or too few and incorrect spatial and temporal distributions).
The root-mean-square error here has been normalized by the associated mean number of observed TCs to account for the differences in annual TC numbers between basins.
Because of the requirement that all core thresholds and conditions must be satisfied for three consecutive 0000 UTC time periods, shorter-lived TCs are more likely to be missed than a longer-lived TCs. This introduces an underprediction bias in formation regions close to land.