Funding for this study was provided by NSF (Grant ATM-0830068), NOAA (Grant NA09OAR4310058), and NASA (Grant NNX09AN50G). Helpful comments from Drs. B. Huang, E. K. Schneider, R. Wu, and Ms. H. Chen are highly appreciated. We thank Dr. B. Huang for carefully reading the early manuscript. We also thank Dr. M. A. Balmaseda from ECMWF for providing its ocean initial conditions and L. Marx for help in the experiment setup. Computing resources provided by the NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) division are also gratefully acknowledged.
Balmaseda, M. A., , K. Mogensen, , and A. T. Weaver, 2013: Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2063, in press.
Barnston, A. G., , S. Li, , S. J. Mason, , D. G. DeWitt, , L. Goddard, , and X. Gong, 2010: Verification of the first 11 years of IRI's seasonal climate forecasts. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 493–520.
Bengtsson, L., , U. Schlese, , E. Roeckner, , M. Latif, , T. Barnett, , and N. Graham, 1993: A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting. Science, 261, 1026–1029.
Charney, J. G., , and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, J. Lighthill and R. P. Pearce, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 99–109.
Chen, M., , W. Wang, , A. Kumar, , H. Wang, , and B. Jha, 2012: Ocean surface impacts on the seasonal-mean precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Climate, 25, 3566–3582.
Cherchi, A., , and A. Navarra, 2007: Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to the horizontal resolution: Differences between AMIP-type and coupled model experiments. Climate Dyn., 28, 273–290.
Fu, X., , B. Wang, , and T. Li, 2002: Impacts of air–sea coupling on the simulation of the mean Asian summer monsoon in the ECHAM4 model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2889–2904.
Gates, W. L., and Coauthors, 1999: An overview of the results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP I). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 29–56.
Hendon, H. H., , E.-P. Lim, , and G. Liu, 2012: The role of air–sea interaction for prediction of Australian summer monsoon rainfall. J. Climate, 25, 1278–1290.
Hu, Y., , Z. Zhong, , X. Liu, , and Y. Zhu, 2012: Influence of air–sea interaction on the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon: A case study. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 53–54, 1–16.
Kang, I.-S., , and J. Shukla, 2005: Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability of the monsoon. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Springer Praxis, 585–612.
Kim, H. M., , C. D. Hoyos, , P. J. Webster, , and I. S. Kang, 2010: Ocean-atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO. Climate Dyn., 35, 771–784.
Kug, J.-S., , I.-S. Kang, , and D.-H. Choi, 2008: Seasonal climate predictability with tier-one and tier-two prediction systems. Climate Dyn., 31, 403–416.
Kumar, A., , Q. Zhang, , J.-K. E. Schemm, , M. L'Heureux, , and K.-H. Seo, 2008: An assessment of errors in the simulation of atmospheric interannual variability in uncoupled AGCM simulations. J. Climate, 21, 2204–2217.
Palmer, T. N., , and D. L. T. Anderson, 1994: The prospects for seasonal forecasting—A review paper. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 755–793.
Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853–872.
Parthasarathy, B., , A. A. Munot, , and D. R. Kothawale, 1988: Regression model for estimation of Indian food grain production from Indian summer rainfall. Agric. For. Meteor., 42, 167–182.
Ropelewski, C. F., , and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606–1626.
Straus, D., , J. Shukla, , D. Paolino, , S. Schubert, , M. Suarez, , P. Pegion, , and A. Kumar, 2003: Predictability of the seasonal mean atmospheric circulation during autumn, winter, and spring. J. Climate, 16, 3629–3649.
Wang, B., , Q. Ding, , X. Fu, , I.-S. Kang, , K. Jin, , J. Shukla, , and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711, doi:10.1029/2005GL022734.
Woolnough, S. J., , F. Vitart, , and M. A. Balmaseda, 2007: The role of the ocean in the Madden–Julian oscillation: Implications for MJO prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 117–128.
Wu, R., , and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Indian summer monsoon–ENSO relationship. J. Climate, 17, 3037–3054.
Wu, R., , and B. P. Kirtman, 2005: Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air–sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability. Climate Dyn., 25, 155–170.
Wu, R., , and B. P. Kirtman, 2007: Regimes of seasonal air–sea interaction and implications for performance of forced simulations. Climate Dyn., 29, 393–410.
Wu, R., , B. P. Kirtman, , and K. Pegion, 2006: Local air–sea relationship in observations and model simulations. J. Climate, 19, 4914–4932.
Xie, P., , and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539–2558.
Zhu, J., , B. Huang, , L. Marx, , J. L. Kinter III, , M. A. Balmaseda, , R.-H. Zhang, , and Z.-Z. Hu, 2012: Ensemble ENSO hindcasts initialized from multiple ocean analyses. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09602, doi:10.1029/2012GL051503.