The authors acknowledge the support of NOAA Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program as part of the CMIP5 Task Force. Work was supported under Grant NA10OAR4310170. Authors acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation RAPID program (Grant AGS-1126804). This research was conducted under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and benefited from a subcontract with the International Potato Center in Lima, Peru (SB120184). L. Carvalho thanks FAPESP (2008/58101-9) and CNPq (555768/2010-4). The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov). CFSR data for this study are from the Research Data Archive (RDA) maintained by the Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
Bombardi, R. J., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2009: IPCC global coupled climate model simulations of the South America monsoon system. Climate Dyn., 33, 893–916.
Bony, S., and J.-L. Dufresne, 2005: Marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of tropical cloud feedback uncertainties in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20806, doi:10.1029/2005GL023851.
Brannstrom, C., W. Jepson, A. M. Filippi, D. Redo, Z. Xu, and S. Ganesh, 2008: Land change in the Brazilian savanna (Cerrado), 1986–2002: Comparative analysis and implications for land-use policy. Land Use Policy, 25, 579–595.
Carvalho, L. M. V., C. Jones, and B. Liebmann, 2002: Extreme precipitation events in southeastern South America and large-scale convective patterns in the South Atlantic convergence zone. J. Climate, 15, 2377–2394.
Carvalho, L. M. V., C. Jones, A. E. Silva, B. Liebmann, and P. L. S. Dias, 2011a: The South American monsoon system and the 1970s climate transition. Int. J. Climatol.,31, 1248–1256, doi:10.1002/joc.2147.
Carvalho, L. M. V., A. E. Silva, C. Jones, B. Liebmann, P. L. Silva Dias, and H. R. Rocha, 2011b: Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system. Climate Dyn.,36, 1865–1880, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0806-2.
Carvalho, L. M. V., C. Jones, A. N. D. Posadas, R. Quiroz, B. Bookhagen, and B. Liebmann, 2012: Precipitation characteristics of the South American monsoon system derived from multiple datasets. J. Climate, 25, 4600–4620.
Cherchi, A., A. Alessandri, S. Masina, and A. Navarra, 2011: Effects of increased CO2 levels on monsoons. Climate Dyn., 37, 83–101.
Chou, C., and J. D. Neelin, 2004: Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation. J. Climate, 17, 2688–2701.
Chou, C., J. D. Neelin, C.-A. Chen, and J.-Y. Tu, 2009: Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Climate, 22, 1982–2005.
Dessler, A. E., and S. M. Davis, 2010: Trends in tropospheric humidity from reanalysis systems. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D19127, doi:10.1029/2010JD014192.
Fisch, G., J. Tota, L. A. T. Machado, M. A. F. Silva Dias, R. F. da F. Lyra, C. Nobre, A. Dolman, and J. Gash, 2004: The convective boundary layer over pasture and forest in Amazonia. Theor. Appl. Climatol.,78, 47–59, doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0043-x.
Forster, P., and Coauthors, 2007: Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 129–234.
Fu, R., and W. Li, 2004: The influence of the land surface on the transition from dry to wet season in Amazonia. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 97–110, doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0046-7.
Fu, R., B. Zhu, and R. E. Dickinson, 1999: How do atmosphere and land surface influence seasonal changes of convection in the tropical Amazon? J. Climate,12, 1306–1321.
Gan, M. A., V. E. Kousky, and C. F. Ropelewski, 2004: The South America monsoon circulation and its relationship to rainfall over west-central Brazil. J. Climate, 17, 47–66.
Gutzler, D. S., 2000: Covariability of spring snowpack and summer rainfall across the southwest United States. J. Climate, 13, 4018–4027.
Gutzler, D. S., and J. W. Preston, 1997: Evidence for a relationship between spring snow cover and summer rainfall in New Mexico. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 2207–2210.
Higgins, R. W., Y. Yao, and X. Wang, 1997: Influence of the North American monsoon system on the U.S. summer precipitation regime. J. Climate,10, 2600–2622.
Higgins, R. W., V. E. Kousky, V. B. S. Silva, E. Becker, and P. Xie, 2010: Intercomparison of daily precipitation statistics over the United States in observations and in NCEP reanalysis products. J. Climate,23, 4637–4650.
Jones, C., and L. M. V. Carvalho, 2013: Climate change in the South American monsoon system: Present climate and CMIP5 projections. J. Climate, 26, 6660–6678.
Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP–NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247–267.
Kodama, Y. M., 1992: Large-scale common features of subtropical precipitation zones (the baiu frontal zone, the SPCZ, and the SACZ). 1. Characteristics of subtropical frontal zones. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70, 813–836.
Magaña, V., J. A. Amador, and S. Medina, 1999: The midsummer drought over Mexico and Central America. J. Climate, 12, 1577–1588.
Marengo, J. A., B. Liebmann, V. Kousky, N. Filizola, and I. Wainer, 2001: On the onset and end of the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon basin. J. Climate, 14, 833–852.
Marengo, J. A., and Coauthors, 2010: Recent developments on the South American monsoon system. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1–21, doi:10.1002/joc.2254.
McGregory, G. R., and S. Nieuwolt, 1998: Tropical Climatology: An Introduction to the Climates of the Low Latitudes. 2nd ed. John Wiley and Sons, 339 pp.
Mechoso, C. R., A. W. Robertson, C. F. Ropelewski, and A. M. Grimm, 2005: The American monsoon systems: An introduction. The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast, C.-P. Chang, B. Wang, and N.-C. G. Lau, Eds., WMO Tech. Doc. 1266, TMRP Rep. 70, 197–206.
Moss, R. H., and Coauthors, 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747–756.
Richter, I., and S.-P. Xie, 2008: Muted precipitation increase in global warming simulations: A surface evaporation perspective. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D24118, doi:10.1029/2008JD010561.
Rickenbach, T. M., R. Nieto-Ferreira, R. P. Barnhill, and S. W. Nesbitt, 2011: Regional contrasts of mesoscale convective system structure prior to and during monsoon onset across South America. J. Climate, 24, 3753–3763.
Rodionov, S. N., 2004: A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophys. Res. Lett.,31, L09204, doi:10.1029/2004GL019448.
Ropelewski, C. F., D. S. Gutzler, R. W. Higgins, and C. R. Mechoso, 2005: The North American monsoon system. WMO Tech Doc. TD-1266, TMRP Rep. 70, 207–218.
Samanta, A., and Coauthors, 2011: Comment on “Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009.” Science, 333, 1093, doi:10.1126/science.1199048.
Seth, A., M. Rojas, and S. A. Rauscher, 2010: CMIP3 projected changes in the annual cycle of the South American monsoon. Climatic Change, 98, 331–357.
Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498.
Vera, C., and G. Silvestri, 2009: Precipitation interannual variability in South America from the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Climate Dyn., 32, 1003–1014.
Wang, H., and R. Fu, 2002: Cross-equatorial flow and seasonal cycle of precipitation over South America. J. Climate, 15, 1591–1608.
Yuter, S. E., Y. L. Serra, and R. A. Houze Jr., 2000: The 1997 Pan American Climate Studies Tropical Eastern Pacific Process Study. Part II: Stratocumulus region. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 483–499.