We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table A1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We thank Drs. Gokhan Danabasoglu, Steve Yeager, and Mingfang Ting for discussions. We also thank two anonymous reviewers and Dr. Anand Gnanadesikan for their invaluable comments. This work is supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office.
Booth, B. B. B., , N. J. Dunstone, , P. R. Halloran, , T. Andrews, , and N. Bellouin, 2012: Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature, 484, 228–232, doi:10.1038/nature10946.
Bryden, H. L., , A. Mujahid, , S. A. Cunningham, , and T. Kanzow, 2009: Adjustment of the basin-scale circulation at 26°N to variations in Gulf Stream, deep western boundary current and Ekman transports as observed by the RAPID array. Ocean Sci., 5, 421–433.
Cai, W., , D. Bi, , J. Church, , T. Cowan, , M. Dix, , and L. Rotstayn, 2006: Pan-oceanic response to increasing anthropogenic aerosols: Impacts on the Southern Hemisphere oceanic circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21707, doi:10.1029/2006GL027513.
Cheng, W., , R. Bleck, , and C. Rooth, 2004: Multi-decadal thermohaline variability in an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Climate Dyn., 22, 573–590.
Cheng, W., , C. M. Bitz, , and J. C. H. Chiang, 2007: Adjustment of the global climate to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts—Past and Future Changes of Meridional Overturning, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 173, Amer. Geophys. Union, 295–313.
Chiang, J. C. H., , W. Cheng, , and C. M. Bitz, 2008: Fast teleconnections to the tropical Atlantic sector from Atlantic thermohaline adjustment. Geophys. Res. Lett.,35, L07704, doi:10.1029/2008GL033292.
Chiang, J. C. H., , C.-Y. Chang, , and M. F. Wehner, 2013: Long-term behavior of the Atlantic interhemispheric SST gradient in the CMIP5 historical simulations. J. Climate, in press.
Cunningham, S. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Science, 317, 935–938.
Danabasoglu, G., , S. G. Yeager, , Y.-O. Kwon, , J. J. Tribbia, , A. S. Phillips, , and J. W. Hurrell, 2012: Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 5153–5172.
Delworth, T. L., , and M. E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dyn., 16, 661–676.
Delworth, T. L., , and K. W. Dixon, 2006: Have anthropogenic aerosols delayed a greenhouse gas-induced weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation? Geophys. Res. Lett.,33, L02606, doi:10.1029/2005GL024980.
Delworth, T. L., , S. Manabe, , and R. J. Stouffer, 1993: Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 1993–2011.
Delworth, T. L., and Coauthors, 2012: Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model. J. Climate, 25, 2755–2781.
Deser, C., , M. A. Alexander, , S.-P. Xie, , and A. S. Phillips, 2010: Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2, 115–143.
Ganachaud, A., 2003: Large-scale mass transports, water mass formation, and diffusivities estimated from World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) hydrographic data. J. Geophys. Res.,108, 3213, doi:10.1029/2002JC001565.
Gregory, J. M., and Coauthors, 2005: A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophys. Res. Lett.,32, L12703, doi:10.1029/2005GL023209.
Hu, A., , G. A. Meehl, , W. Han, , and J. Yin, 2011: Effect of the potential melting of the Greenland ice sheet on the meridional overturning circulation and global climate in the future. Deep-Sea Res. II, 58, 1914–1926.
Hurrell, J. W., , and C. Deser, 2009: North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Mar. Syst., 78, 28–41.
Johns, W. E., and Coauthors, 2011: Continuous, array-based estimates of Atlantic Ocean heat transport at 26.5°N. J. Climate, 24, 2429–2449.
Joyce, T. M., , and R. Zhang, 2010: On the path of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J. Climate, 23, 3146–3154.
Kanzow, T., and Coauthors, 2010: Seasonal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. J. Climate, 23, 5678–5698.
Kwon, Y.-O., , and C. Frankignoul, 2012: Stochastically-driven multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM3. Climate Dyn., 38, 859–876.
Levermann, A., , A. Griesel, , M. Hofmann, , M. Montoya, , and S. Rahmstorf, 2005: Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation. Climate Dyn., 24, 347–354.
Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 747–845.
Schmittner, A., , M. Latif, , and B. Schneider, 2005: Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations. Geophys. Res. Lett.,32, L23710, doi:10.1029/2005GL024368.
Schneider, B., , M. Latif, , and A. Schmittner, 2007: Evaluation of different methods to assess model projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J. Climate, 20, 2121–2132.
Smethie W. M., Jr., , and R. A. Fine, 2001: Rates of North Atlantic Deep Water formation calculated from chlorofluorocarbon inventories. Deep-Sea Res. I, 48, 189–215.
Solomon, S., , D. Qin, , M. Manning, , Z. Chen, , M. Marquis, , K. Averyt, , M. B. Tignor, , and H. L. Miller Jr., Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
Sutton, R. T., , and D. L. R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309, 115–118.
Talley, L. D., , J. L. Reid, , and P. E. Robbins, 2003: Data-based meridional overturning streamfunctions for the global ocean. J. Climate, 16, 3213–3226.
Taylor, K. E., , R. J. Stouffer, , and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498.
Ting, M., , Y. Kushnir, , R. Seager, , and C. Li, 2009: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469–1481.
Vellinga, M., , and R. A. Wood, 2002: Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change, 54, 251–267.
Wang, C., , S. Dong, , and E. Munoz, 2010: Seawater density variations in the North Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dyn., 34, 953–968.
Woollings, T., , J. M. Gregory, , J. G. Pinto, , M. Reyers, , and D. J. Brayshaw, 2012: Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nat. Geosci., 5, 313–317.
Zhang, R., , and T. L. Delworth, 2006: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett.,33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267.