We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This work was supported by the Spanish projects MICINN CGL2011-13564-E and CGL2009-10285.
We want to thank Juliette Mignot for the data provided and Luis Dinis for useful discussion.
Bader, J., and M. Latif, 2003: The impact of decadal scale Indian Ocean SST anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2169, doi:10.1029/2003GL018426.
Benson, C., and E. J. Clay, 1998: The impact of drought on sub-Saharan African economies. World Bank Tech. Paper 401, 83 pp.
Biasutti, M., and A. Giannini, 2006: Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L11706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026067.
Biasutti, M., I. M. Held, A. H. Sobel, and A. Giannini, 2008: SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. J. Climate, 21, 3471–3486.
Caminade, C., and L. Terray, 2010: Twentieth century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM, and future changes. Climate Dyn., 35, 75–94, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0545-4.
Chikamoto, Y., and Coauthors, 2013: An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC. Climate Dyn., 40, 1201–1222, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1351-y.
Cook, K. H., and E. K. Vizy, 2006: Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: Twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations. J. Climate, 19, 3681–3703.
Fink, A. H., J. M. Scharage, and S. Kotthaus, 2010: On the potential causes of the nonstationary correlations between West African precipitation and Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Climate, 23, 5437–5456.
Garcia-Serrano, J., and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2012: On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast. Climate Dyn., 39, 2025–2040, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1413-1.
Goddard, L., and Coauthors, 2013: A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal prediction experiments. Climate Dyn., 40, 245–272, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2.
Haarsma, R. J., F. M. Selten, S. L. Weber, and M. Kliphuis, 2005: Sahel rainfall variability and response to greenhouse warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17702, doi:10.1029/2005GL023232.
ICPO, 2011: Data and bias correction for decadal climate predictions. International CLIVAR Project Office Publication Series 150, 5 pp. [Available online at http://www.wcrp-climate.org/decadal/references/DCPP_Bias_Correction.pdf.]
Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453, 84–88.
Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2012: Evaluation of short-term climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10701, doi:10.1029/2012GL051644.
Lu, J., and T. L. Delworth, 2005: Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L22706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023316.
Mitchell, T. D., and P. D. Jones, 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693–712.
Mochizuki, T., and Coauthors, 2010: Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 1833–1837.
Mohino, E., S. Janicot, and J. Bader, 2011: Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability. Climate Dyn., 37, 419–440.
Philippon, N., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and P. M. Ruti, 2010: Skill, reproducibility and potential predictability of the West African monsoon in coupled GCMs. Climate Dyn., 35, 53–74.
Pohlmann, H., J. H. Jungclaus, A. Köhl, D. Stammer, and J. Marotzke, 2009: Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effect on the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 3926–3938.
Shin, S. I., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2011: Critical influence of the pattern of tropical ocean warming on remote climate trends. Climate Dyn., 36, 1577–1591, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0732-3.
Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy, 2007: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796–799.
Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283–2296.
Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498.
Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. Li, 2009: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469–1481.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, B. Wouters, and W. Hazeleger, 2012: Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble. Climate Dyn., 38, 1263–1280, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1313-4.
Venzke, S., M. R. Allen, R. T. Sutton, and D. P. Rowell, 1999: The atmospheric response over the North Atlantic to decadal changes in sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 12, 2562–2584.
Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2006: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267.