The authors thank Michael Mann, Michael Kozar, Caspar Ammann, and Bette Otto-Bleisner for providing the CAM3 model output, and Natalie Mahowald and Amato Evan for output from the slab ocean version of CAM3. We thank Ming Zhao of NOAA/GFDL for providing output of the GFDL HiRAM model. ECHAM5-HAM computations were performed at the Swiss National Supercomputing Center (CSCS). We also thank David Raymond, Jim Kossin, and an anonymous reviewer for constructive comments that led to significant improvement of the original manuscript. DF was financially supported by the National Centers for Competence in Research (NCCR) in the context of the HyClim project. The first author’s contributions were supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant AGS-0850639.
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But correlations involving the outflow temperature using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data are dubious, as described in the next section.
While the temperature at 70 hPa does not affect potential intensity, it is the lowest standard radiosonde level that can reasonably be assumed to be unaffected by vertical migrations of the TTL; thus it is useful to examine temperature tendencies there.
Seeding is not done poleward of 75°N or 65°S, or equatorward of 3°.
The ERA-Interim rate has an associated p value of 0.16, so it is of dubious statistical significance. The p values associated with the observed, NCEP–NCAR, and MERRA regressions are 0.02, 3 × 10−4, and 0.02, respectively.