The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or U.S. government position, policy, or decision. The authors thank Chris Landsea and the other two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and for ultimately improving the original manuscript. This work is funded by the Office of Naval Research and NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program through the National Ocean Partnership Program.
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Leipper and Volgenau (1972) called this quantity “hurricane heat potential.” This quantity has also been referred to as “tropical cyclone heat potential” (see Goni et al. 2009, and references contained therein).
Sea surface heights from satellite-based altimetry are used along with collocated SST to estimate one-dimensional (vertical) ocean profiles using MODAS (Fox et al. 2002). MODAS profiles are then assimilated in a similar way to real profiles, but with unique error characteristics that reflect the variable skill of the MODAS method and statistical databases across the globe.
Best estimates of the maximum radial extent of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt winds in quadrants around the TC. These have been reanalyzed postseason (i.e., best tracked) beginning in 2004 (Knaff et al. 2007).
If using storm translation speed instead of latitude, the regression for the 10-day lagged response the variance explained is reduced to 57%. Forcing translation speed into the regression equation that also includes latitude variations increased the variance explained by (4) by just 2%. This remains true for other regression equations.