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Discriminating between Models: An Application to Relative Sea Level at Brest

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  • 1 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
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Abstract

A simple, informal method is presented for discriminating between competing models of trend in a climate record. The method is applied to a tide gauge record of relative see level at Brest for the period 1807–1970. Although relative sea level at Brest appears to have accelerated over this period, it is impossible to distinguish between a smooth acceleration and one that occurred over a relatively short period of time.

Abstract

A simple, informal method is presented for discriminating between competing models of trend in a climate record. The method is applied to a tide gauge record of relative see level at Brest for the period 1807–1970. Although relative sea level at Brest appears to have accelerated over this period, it is impossible to distinguish between a smooth acceleration and one that occurred over a relatively short period of time.

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