• Battalio, M., and J. Dyer, 2017: The minimum length scale for evaluating QG omega using high-resolution model data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 16591678, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0241.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Davies, H. C., 2015: The quasigeostrophic omega equation: Reappraisal, refinements, and relevance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 325, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00098.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Donner, L. J., and Coauthors, 2011: The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3. J. Climate, 24, 34843519, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3955.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dostalek, J. F., W. H. Schubert, and M. DeMaria, 2017: Derivation and solution of the omega equation associated with a balance theory on the sphere. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 30453068, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000992.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dwyer, J. G., and P. A. O’Gorman, 2017: Changing duration and spatial extent of midlatitude precipitation extremes across different climates. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 58635871, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072855.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K. A., M. Fantini, and A. J. Thorpe, 1987: Baroclinic instability in an environment of small stability to slantwise moist convection. Part I: Two-dimensional models. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 15591573, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<1559:BIIAEO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emanuel, K. A., J. D. Neelin, and C. S. Bretherton, 1994: On large-scale circulations in convecting atmospheres. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 11111143, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712051902.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Emori, S., and S. J. Brown, 2005: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ferziger, J. H., and M. Perić, 2002: Computational Methods for Fluid Dynamics. 3rd ed. Springer-Verlag, 426 pp., https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-56026-2.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Fildier, B., H. Parishani, and W. D. Collins, 2017: Simultaneous characterization of mesoscale and convective-scale tropical rainfall extremes and their dynamical and thermodynamic modes of change. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 21032119, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001033.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frierson, D. M. W., 2006: Robust increases in midlatitude static stability in simulations of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24816, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027504.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoskins, B. J., I. Draghici, and H. C. Davies, 1978: A new look at the ω-equation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 3138, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710443903.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kay, J. E., and Coauthors, 2015: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 13331349, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kidston, J., S. M. Dean, J. A. Renwick, and G. K. Vallis, 2010: A robust increase in the eddy length scale in the simulation of future climates. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L03806, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041615.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Muraki, D. J., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 1999: The next-order corrections to quasigeostrophic theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 15471560, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<1547:TNOCTQ>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nie, J., and A. H. Sobel, 2016: Modeling the interaction between quasigeostrophic vertical motion and convection in a single column. J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 11011117, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0205.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nie, J., A. H. Sobel, D. A. Shaevitz, and S. Wang, 2018: Dynamic amplification of extreme precipitation sensitivity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 94679472, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1800357115.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and D. A. Gold, 2008: Dynamical diagnosis: A comparison of quasigeostrophy and Ertel potential vorticity. Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology and Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Meteor. Monogr., No. 55, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 183–202, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-933876-68-2_9.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • O’Gorman, P. A., 2010: Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19 17619 180, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011547107.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • O’Gorman, P. A., 2011: The effective static stability experienced by eddies in a moist atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 7590, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3537.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • O’Gorman, P. A., 2015: Precipitation extremes under climate change. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 1, 4959, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • O’Gorman, P. A., and T. Schneider, 2009: The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 14 77314 777, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907610106.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pfahl, S., P. A. O’Gorman, and E. M. Fischer, 2017: Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nat. Climate Change, 7, 423427, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schär, C., and Coauthors, 2016: Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events. Climatic Change, 137, 201216, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1669-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shaevitz, D. A., J. Nie, and A. H. Sobel, 2016: The 2010 and 2014 floods in India and Pakistan: Dynamical influences on vertical motion and precipitation. https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.01317.

  • Simmons, A. J., and D. M. Burridge, 1981: An energy and angular-momentum conserving vertical finite-difference scheme and hybrid vertical coordinates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 758766, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0758:AEAAMC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Singh, M. S., and P. A. O’Gorman, 2012: Upward shift of the atmospheric general circulation under global warming: Theory and simulations. J. Climate, 25, 82598276, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00699.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Stone, H. L., 1968: Iterative solution of implicit approximations of multidimensional partial differential equations. SIAM J. Numer. Anal., 5, 530558, https://doi.org/10.1137/0705044.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tandon, N. F., J. Nie, and X. Zhang, 2018a: Strong influence of eddy length on boreal summertime extreme precipitation projections. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 10 66510 672, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079327.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tandon, N. F., Z. Xuebin, and A. H. Sobel, 2018b: Understanding the dynamics of future changes in extreme precipitation intensity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 28702878, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076361.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zedan, M., and G. E. Schneider, 1983: A three-dimensional modified strongly implicit procedure for heat conduction. AIAA J., 21, 295303, https://doi.org/10.2514/3.8068.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 40 40 16
Full Text Views 18 18 5
PDF Downloads 27 27 9

Response of Vertical Velocities in Extratropical Precipitation Extremes to Climate Change

View More View Less
  • 1 Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Precipitation extremes intensify in most regions in climate model projections. Changes in vertical velocities contribute to the changes in intensity of precipitation extremes but remain poorly understood. Here, we find that midtropospheric vertical velocities in extratropical precipitation extremes strengthen overall in simulations of twenty-first-century climate change. For each extreme event, we solve the quasigeostrophic omega equation to decompose this strengthening into different physical contributions. We first consider a dry decomposition in which latent heating is treated as an external forcing of upward motion. Much of the positive contribution to upward motion from increased latent heating is offset by negative contributions from increases in dry static stability and changes in the horizontal length scale of vertical velocities. However, taking changes in latent heating as given is a limitation when the aim is to understand changes in precipitation, since latent heating and precipitation are closely linked. Therefore, we also perform a moist decomposition of the changes in vertical velocities in which latent heating is represented through a moist static stability. In the moist decomposition, changes in moist static stability play a key role and contributions from other factors such as changes in the depth of the upward motion increase in importance. While both dry and moist decompositions are self-consistent, the moist dynamical perspective has greater potential to give insights into the causes of the dynamical contributions to changes in precipitation extremes in different regions.

Corresponding author: Ziwei Li, ziweili@mit.edu

Abstract

Precipitation extremes intensify in most regions in climate model projections. Changes in vertical velocities contribute to the changes in intensity of precipitation extremes but remain poorly understood. Here, we find that midtropospheric vertical velocities in extratropical precipitation extremes strengthen overall in simulations of twenty-first-century climate change. For each extreme event, we solve the quasigeostrophic omega equation to decompose this strengthening into different physical contributions. We first consider a dry decomposition in which latent heating is treated as an external forcing of upward motion. Much of the positive contribution to upward motion from increased latent heating is offset by negative contributions from increases in dry static stability and changes in the horizontal length scale of vertical velocities. However, taking changes in latent heating as given is a limitation when the aim is to understand changes in precipitation, since latent heating and precipitation are closely linked. Therefore, we also perform a moist decomposition of the changes in vertical velocities in which latent heating is represented through a moist static stability. In the moist decomposition, changes in moist static stability play a key role and contributions from other factors such as changes in the depth of the upward motion increase in importance. While both dry and moist decompositions are self-consistent, the moist dynamical perspective has greater potential to give insights into the causes of the dynamical contributions to changes in precipitation extremes in different regions.

Corresponding author: Ziwei Li, ziweili@mit.edu
Save