• Alexander, M. A., K. H. Kilbourne, and J. A. Nye, 2014: Climate variability during warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 1871–2008. J. Mar. Syst., 133, 1426, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.07.017.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ayarzagüena, B., S. Ineson, N. J. Dunstone, M. P. Baldwin, and A. A. Scaife, 2018: Intraseasonal effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on North Atlantic climate. J. Climate, 31, 88618873, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0097.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnston, A. G., and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 10831126, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, M. Ranganathan, and M. L. L’Heureux, 2019: Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American multimodel ensemble. Climate Dyn., 53, 72157234, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3603-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bell, C. J., L. J. Gray, A. J. Charlton-Perez, M. M. Joshi, and A. A. Scaife, 2009: Stratospheric communication of El Niño teleconnections to European winter. J. Climate, 22, 40834096, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2717.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bladé, I., D. Fortuny, G. J. van Oldenborgh, and B. Liebmann, 2012: The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D16104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017816.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Branstator, G., and F. Selten, 2009: “Modes of variability” and climate change. J. Climate, 22, 26392658, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2517.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bretherton, C. S., and D. S. Battisti, 2000: An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 767770, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL010910.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brönnimann, S., 2007: Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on European climate. Rev. Geophys., 45, RG3003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000199.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Butler, A. H., and Coauthors, 2016: The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 14131427, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2743.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Caian, M., T. Koenigk, R. Döscher, and A. Devasthale, 2018: An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climate Dyn., 50, 423441, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3618-9.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chen, G., and R. A. Plumb, 2009: Quantifying the eddy feedback and the persistence of the zonal index in an idealized atmospheric model. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 37073720, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3165.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cohen, J., and Coauthors, 2014: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nat. Geosci., 7, 627637, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Collins, W. J., and Coauthors, 2011: Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model—HadGEM2. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 10511075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, S.-P. Xie, and A. S. Phillips, 2010: Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2, 115143, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ding, Q., B. Wang, J. M. Wallace, and G. Branstator, 2011: Tropical–extratropical teleconnections in boreal summer: Observed interannual variability. J. Climate, 24, 18781896, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3621.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Domeisen, D. I. V., A. H. Butler, K. Fröhlich, M. Bittner, W. A. Müller, and J. Baehr, 2015: Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability in the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system. J. Climate, 28, 256271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dong, B., R. Sutton, and T. Woollings, 2013a: The extreme European summer 2012. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, S28S32, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dong, B., R. Sutton, T. Woollings, and K. Hodges, 2013b: Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: Mechanisms and impacts on European climate. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034037, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034037.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Duchez, A., and Coauthors, 2016: Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave. Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 074004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074004.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dunstone, N., D. Smith, A. Scaife, L. Hermanson, R. Eade, N. Robinson, M. Andrews, and J. Knight, 2016: Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead. Nat. Geosci., 9, 809814, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2824.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dunstone, N., and Coauthors, 2018: Skilful seasonal predictions of summer European rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 32463254, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076337.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eade, R., D. Smith, A. Scaife, E. Wallace, N. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, and N. Robinson, 2014: Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world? Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 56205628, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061146.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Folland, C. K., J. Knight, H. W. Linderholm, D. Fereday, S. Ineson, and J. W. Hurrell, 2009: The summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, present, and future. J. Climate, 22, 10821103, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gastineau, G., and C. Frankignoul, 2015: Influence of the North Atlantic SST variability on the atmospheric circulation during the twentieth century. J. Climate, 28, 13961416, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00424.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gulev, S. K., M. Latif, N. Keenlyside, W. Park, and K. P. Koltermann, 2013: North Atlantic Ocean control on surface heat flux on multidecadal timescales. Nature, 499, 464467, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12268.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Harris, I., P. Jones, T. Osborn, and D. Lister, 2014: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—The CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623642, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hodson, D. L. R., R. T. Sutton, C. Cassou, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okumura, and T. Zhou, 2010: Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature: A multimodel comparison. Climate Dyn., 34, 10411058, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0571-2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoskins, B. J., and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 11791196, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1179:TSLROA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoskins, B. J., and T. Ambrizzi, 1993: Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 16611671, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<1661:RWPOAR>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hoskins, B. J., and T. Woollings, 2015: Persistent extratropical regimes and climate extremes. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 1, 115124, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0020-8.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ineson, S., A. A. Scaife, J. R. Knight, J. C. Manners, N. J. Dunstone, L. J. Gray, and J. D. Haigh, 2011: Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Nat. Geosci., 4, 753757, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1282.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jiménez-Esteve, B., and D. I. V. Domeisen, 2019: Nonlinearity in the North Pacific atmospheric response to a linear ENSO forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 22712281, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081226.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437471, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Knight, J. R., C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife, 2006: Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026242.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumar, A., M. Chen, and W. Wang, 2013: Understanding prediction skill of seasonal mean precipitation over the tropics. J. Climate, 26, 56745681, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00731.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kushnir, Y., W. A. Robinson, I. Bladé, N. M. J. Hall, S. Peng, and R. Sutton, 2002: Atmospheric GCM response to extratropical SST anomalies: Synthesis and evaluation. J. Climate, 15, 22332256, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2233:AGRTES>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • McKinnon, K. A., A. Rhines, M. Tingley, and P. Huybers, 2016: Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures. Nat. Geosci., 9, 389394, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2687.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Minobe, S., A. Kuwano-Yoshida, N. Komori, S.-P. Xie, and R. J. Small, 2008: Influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere. Nature, 452, 206209, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06690.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mori, M., Y. Kosaka, M. Watanabe, H. Nakamura, and M. Kimoto, 2019: A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling. Nat. Climate Change, 9, 123129, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neddermann, N.-C., W. A. Müller, M. Dobrynin, A. Düsterhus, and J. Baehr, 2019: Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed. Climate Dyn., 53, 30393056, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04678-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 699706, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • O’Reilly, C. H., T. Woollings, and L. Zanna, 2017: The dynamical influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on continental climate. J. Climate, 30, 72137230, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0345.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ossó, A., R. Sutton, L. Shaffrey, and B. Dong, 2018: Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 5963, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713146114.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmer, T. N., 1999: A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction. J. Climate, 12, 575591, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0575:ANDPOC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palmer, T. N., and D. L. T. Anderson, 1994: The prospects for seasonal forecasting––A review paper. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 755793, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712051802.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Petrie, R. E., L. C. Shaffrey, and R. T. Sutton, 2015: Atmospheric impact of Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation. J. Climate, 28, 96069622, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0316.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodwell, M. J., D. P. Rowell, and C. K. Folland, 1999: Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate. Nature, 398, 320323, https://doi.org/10.1038/18648.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sardeshmukh, P. D., and B. J. Hoskins, 1988: The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 12281251, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1228:TGOGRF>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scaife, A. A., and D. Smith, 2018: A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science. npj Climate Atmos. Sci., 1, 28, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scaife, A. A., and Coauthors, 2011: Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049573.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scaife, A. A., S. Ineson, J. R. Knight, L. Gray, K. Kodera, and D. M. Smith, 2013: A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 434439, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50099.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scaife, A. A., and Coauthors, 2014: Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 25142519, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059637.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scaife, A. A., and Coauthors, 2017: Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143 (702), 111, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2910.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schär, C., D. Lüthi, U. Beyerle, and E. Heise, 1999: The soil–precipitation feedback: A process study with a regional climate model. J. Climate, 12, 722741, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0722:TSPFAP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., 2013: Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 044015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044015.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Screen, J. A., I. Simmonds, C. Deser, and R. Tomas, 2013: The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 26, 12301248, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seneviratne, S. I., D. Lüthi, M. Litschi, and C. Schär, 2006: Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205209, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05095.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seneviratne, S. I., T. Corti, E. L. Davin, M. Hirschi, E. B. Jaeger, I. Lehner, B. Orlowsky, and A. J. Teuling, 2010: Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shepherd, T. G., 2014: Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nat. Geosci., 7, 703708, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sung, M.-K., S.-I. An, B.-M. Kim, and S.-H. Woo, 2014: A physical mechanism of the precipitation dipole in the western United States based on PDO-storm track relationship. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 47194726, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060711.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sutton, R. T., and D. L. R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309, 115118, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1109496.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sutton, R. T., and B. Dong, 2012: Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nat. Geosci., 5, 788792, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1595.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Thomson, S. I., and G. K. Vallis, 2018: Atmospheric response to SST anomalies. Part II: Background-state dependence, teleconnections, and local effects in summer. J. Atmos. Sci., 75, 41254138, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0298.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Walters, D., and Coauthors, 2017: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 19091963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Woollings, T., B. Hoskins, M. Blackburn, D. Hassell, and K. Hodges, 2010: Storm track sensitivity to sea surface temperature resolution in a regional atmosphere model. Climate Dyn., 35, 341353, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0554-3.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wulff, C. O., R. J. Greatbatch, D. I. V. Domeisen, G. Gollan, and F. Hansen, 2017: Tropical forcing of the summer east Atlantic pattern. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11 16611 173, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075493.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yang, S., and J. H. Christensen, 2012: Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053338.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 57 57 36
Full Text Views 12 12 6
PDF Downloads 16 16 8

The North Atlantic as a Driver of Summer Atmospheric Circulation

View More View Less
  • 1 Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
  • 2 College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
  • 3 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
© Get Permissions
Restricted access

Abstract

Skill in seasonal forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is mostly limited to winter. Drivers of summer circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic–European (NAE) sector are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the role of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in driving summer atmospheric circulation changes. The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), the leading mode of observed summer atmospheric circulation variability in the NAE sector, is correlated with a distinct SST tripole pattern in the North Atlantic. An atmospheric general circulation model is used to test whether there are robust atmospheric circulation responses over the NAE sector to concurrent SSTs related to the SNAO. The most robust responses project onto the summer east Atlantic (SEA) pattern, the second dominant mode of observed summer atmospheric circulation variability in the NAE sector, and are most evident at the surface in response to tropical SSTs and at altitude in response to extratropical SSTs. The tropical-to-extratropical teleconnection appears to be due to Rossby wave propagation from SST anomalies, and in turn precipitation anomalies, in the Caribbean region. We identify key biases in the model, which may be responsible for the overly dominant SEA pattern variability, compared to the SNAO, and may also explain why the responses resemble the SEA pattern, rather than the SNAO. Efforts to eradicate these biases, perhaps achieved by higher-resolution simulations or with improved model physics, would allow for an improved understanding of the true response to North Atlantic SST patterns.

Corresponding author: Joe M. Osborne, joe.osborne@metoffice.gov.uk

Abstract

Skill in seasonal forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is mostly limited to winter. Drivers of summer circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic–European (NAE) sector are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the role of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in driving summer atmospheric circulation changes. The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), the leading mode of observed summer atmospheric circulation variability in the NAE sector, is correlated with a distinct SST tripole pattern in the North Atlantic. An atmospheric general circulation model is used to test whether there are robust atmospheric circulation responses over the NAE sector to concurrent SSTs related to the SNAO. The most robust responses project onto the summer east Atlantic (SEA) pattern, the second dominant mode of observed summer atmospheric circulation variability in the NAE sector, and are most evident at the surface in response to tropical SSTs and at altitude in response to extratropical SSTs. The tropical-to-extratropical teleconnection appears to be due to Rossby wave propagation from SST anomalies, and in turn precipitation anomalies, in the Caribbean region. We identify key biases in the model, which may be responsible for the overly dominant SEA pattern variability, compared to the SNAO, and may also explain why the responses resemble the SEA pattern, rather than the SNAO. Efforts to eradicate these biases, perhaps achieved by higher-resolution simulations or with improved model physics, would allow for an improved understanding of the true response to North Atlantic SST patterns.

Corresponding author: Joe M. Osborne, joe.osborne@metoffice.gov.uk
Save